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the-ethereum-roadmap-merge-surge-verge
Blog

EIP-4844 Through the Lens of Network Load

The Dencun upgrade and EIP-4844 delivered 100x fee drops for L2s, but merely shifted the bottleneck from execution to data bandwidth. This analysis breaks down the new network load dynamics, the emerging blob market, and what it means for the scalability of Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base.

introduction
THE LOAD

The Fee Drop Was a Distraction

EIP-4844's fee reduction was a temporary effect; the permanent change is a new, cheaper data layer for L2s.

Fee reduction was ephemeral. The 90% drop in L2 fees post-EIP-4844 was a market-clearing event for a new, underutilized resource. The permanent architectural shift is the creation of blobspace, a dedicated data market separate from EVM execution gas.

Blobspace decouples data from compute. This separates the pricing of L2 data posting from mainnet congestion. Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism now compete for blob slots, not block space with Uniswap swaps, creating a more predictable cost structure.

The real metric is blob utilization. Fee volatility returns as blobspace fills. Networks like Base and zkSync Era posting full 128KB blobs drive the baseline cost. The test is how fees behave at 100% blob capacity, not the initial trough.

Evidence: Post-4844, L2 transaction fees are now a function of two variables: L2 execution gas and the Ethereum blob fee. The EIP-1559-style targeting mechanism for blobs will create a new equilibrium, making fee prediction a bimodal analysis.

deep-dive
THE DATA

Anatomy of a Blob: From Calldata to Carrier Wave

EIP-4844's blobs are a new data primitive that decouples L2 data availability from execution, fundamentally altering network load economics.

Blobs are not smart contract calldata. They are a separate, versioned data structure in the beacon chain, carrying L2 transaction data like Arbitrum or Optimism batches. This separation prevents blob data from being processed by the EVM, eliminating execution gas costs and enabling independent pricing.

The 128 KB blob size is a network constraint. It is a carrier wave sized for efficient P2P gossip propagation, not a technical limit of the data format. This design ensures blob data is broadcast and available for a fixed 18-day window before nodes prune it.

Blob fee markets are decoupled from gas. A separate EIP-1559-style fee mechanism sets blob prices based on demand for data slots, independent of base fee volatility. This creates a predictable cost structure for rollups, a core goal for chains like Base and zkSync.

Evidence: Pre-EIP-4844, calldata consumed ~90% of an L2's Ethereum costs. Post-upgrade, blob fees are ~90% cheaper than equivalent calldata, directly reducing L2 transaction fees and increasing throughput capacity.

EIP-4844 THROUGHPUT ANALYSIS

Blob Capacity vs. Rollup Demand: The Imminent Squeeze

Compares the projected data capacity of Ethereum's blobspace against the current and forecasted demand from major L2 rollups, highlighting the timeline for congestion.

Metric / RollupCurrent State (Q2 2024)Post-Dencun BaselineProjected Demand (EoY 2024)

Target Blobs per Block

3

6

6

Max Theoretical TPS (All Rollups)

~300

~600

~600

Arbitrum Daily Blob Usage

~45% of target

~75% of target

100% of target

Optimism Daily Blob Usage

~30% of target

~60% of target

~90% of target

Base Daily Blob Usage

~25% of target

~50% of target

100% of target

zkSync Era Daily Blob Usage

~15% of target

~40% of target

~70% of target

Avg. Blob Fee (Gwei)

< 5

1 - 3

10 - 50+

Congestion & Fee Spikes Expected

counter-argument
THE LOAD TEST

The Optimist's Retort: "It's Working as Designed"

EIP-4844's initial congestion validates its core function as a high-throughput data sink, not a failure.

Blobs are a pressure valve. The design goal was to absorb L2 data, and the immediate 100% utilization proves demand exists. This is a successful stress test of the new fee market.

Fee separation is the win. Blob gas prices decouple from EVM execution, preventing L2 settlement from being priced out by meme coin frenzies. This protects Arbitrum and Optimism transaction finality.

The target is not zero cost. The economic model uses variable pricing to dynamically manage blobspace demand, ensuring data availability remains a scarce, auctioned resource. Low fees are a side effect of low usage.

Evidence: Post-4844, Base and zkSync Era consistently fill blobs, demonstrating L2s are the primary consumers. The system's elasticity is proven as blob gas prices spike and crash with demand waves.

protocol-spotlight
POST-BLOB STRATEGIES

Architectural Adaptations: How L2s Are Responding

EIP-4844's data blobs are a temporary reprieve, not a permanent fix. Here's how leading L2s are architecting for the next wave of demand.

01

The Problem: Blobs Are Still a Scarce Resource

Blob capacity is finite and will be auctioned. L2s must compete with each other and future data-hungry apps (e.g., EigenDA, Celestia rollups) for this subsidized space. The ~0.75 MB per slot limit is a hard ceiling.

  • Blob Gas Fees will become volatile during congestion.
  • Sequencer Profit Margins are now tied to data market efficiency.
  • Long-term scaling requires moving beyond Ethereum for data.
~0.75 MB
Per Slot Cap
Volatile
Future Cost
02

The Solution: Aggressive Data Compression (Arbitrum, zkSync)

Maximizing bits-per-byte in each blob is the first line of defense. This isn't just about general compression; it's about L2-specific optimizations.

  • Arbitrum's Stylus and zkSync's Boojum upgrade enable tighter state diffs and more efficient proof systems.
  • Custom Precompiles for common operations (e.g., signature verification) reduce calldata overhead.
  • Goal: Push transaction cost reductions beyond the ~10x from blobs alone.
>10x
Cost Target
Boojum/Stylus
Core Tech
03

The Solution: Modular Data Pipelines (Optimism, Base)

Decoupling execution from data availability (DA) is the endgame. The Optimism Superchain is architecting for a multi-DA future.

  • Planned integration with EigenDA provides a high-throughput, cost-stable data layer.
  • Alt-DA layers act as a pressure valve, keeping blob demand and fees in check.
  • Enables interoperable rollups (e.g., Base, Zora) to share security and data infrastructure.
EigenDA
Primary Alt-DA
Superchain
Architecture
04

The Solution: Sequencer-Level Batching (StarkNet, Polygon zkEVM)

Intelligent transaction ordering and proof aggregation at the sequencer level dramatically improves blob utilization. This is a software race.

  • StarkNet's Sequencer uses Cairo's efficiency to batch 1000s of transactions into a single proof update.
  • Shared Provers (like Polygon's AggLayer) amortize fixed proving costs across multiple chains.
  • Reduces the frequency of L1 submissions, making blob usage strategic rather than constant.
1000s
Txs per Batch
AggLayer
Shared Proving
future-outlook
THE NETWORK LOAD

Beyond the Blob: The Path to Full Danksharding

EIP-4844's blobs are a temporary data lane, not a scaling solution, and their design reveals the engineering constraints for full Danksharding.

Blobs are a sidecar, not a highway. EIP-4844 introduces a separate fee market for blob-carrying transactions, isolating L2 data posting costs from Ethereum's core execution. This prevents congestion from rollup data auctions from spilling over and spiking gas for DeFi users on Uniswap or Aave.

The 3-blob limit is a safety valve. The current cap of ~0.375 MB per block is a deliberate bandwidth constraint to protect consensus clients. Full Danksharding requires a peer-to-peer data availability sampling network, which client teams like Prysm and Lighthouse are still implementing.

Data availability sampling is the unlock. Danksharding scales by allowing nodes to verify data availability by checking random chunks. This shifts the security model from 'download everything' to probabilistic verification, enabling the network to safely handle 32+ MB per slot.

Evidence: The current blob count per block averages 1.5, far below the 3-blob cap, proving the fee market is functional but demand is throttled by application readiness and cost, not protocol limits.

takeaways
EIP-4844: NETWORK LOAD IMPACT

TL;DR for the Time-Poor CTO

EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) is a data availability upgrade that fundamentally changes the L2 scaling equation by introducing cheap, temporary data blobs.

01

The Problem: L2s Paying Mainnet Gas for Data

Rollups were forced to post call data to Ethereum's expensive calldata, creating a ~90% cost floor for user transactions. This bottleneck limited scaling and kept fees artificially high, even on optimistic and ZK rollups like Arbitrum and zkSync.

  • Cost Bottleneck: Data costs dominated L2 economics.
  • Throughput Cap: Limited by mainnet block gas, not L2 execution.
  • Fee Volatility: User fees spiked with mainnet congestion.
~90%
Cost Was Data
~80 kB
Block Limit
02

The Solution: Blobs as a Separate Resource

EIP-4844 introduces blob-carrying transactions with dedicated ~125 kB data blobs that are cheap and auto-delete after ~18 days. This creates a new, abundant data market separate from EVM execution gas.

  • Cost Decoupling: Blob fees follow independent, volatile EIP-1559 mechanics.
  • Scalability Leap: Targets ~0.3 MB per slot, a ~4x initial data capacity increase.
  • Forward Compatibility: The foundational schema for full Danksharding.
~125 kB
Per Blob
~4x
More Data
03

The Load Shift: From Execution to Consensus

Network load migrates from the Execution Layer to the Consensus Layer. Validators now must propagate and store blobs temporarily, increasing bandwidth and storage requirements but offloading the EVM. This is a strategic trade-off for scalable data availability.

  • Bandwidth Impact: ~2 MB/min of extra p2p data for validators.
  • Storage Impact: ~20 GB/month of temporary blob storage.
  • Client Diversity Risk: Increased hardware requirements could centralize nodes.
~2 MB/min
Extra P2P Data
~20 GB/mo
Temp Storage
04

The Result: L2 Fee Compression & New Use Cases

L2 transaction fees are now dominated by execution, not data. This enables sub-cent transactions and makes high-volume, low-value applications like micro-payments and fully on-chain games economically viable. Projects like Starknet and Base see immediate benefit.

  • Fee Reduction: Target of 10-100x cheaper L2 fees.
  • New Design Space: Viable data-heavy appchains and volition models.
  • Ecosystem Flywheel: Cheaper fees drive more activity, absorbing blob supply.
10-100x
Cheaper L2 Fees
<$0.01
Target Tx Cost
05

The Risk: Blob Fee Volatility & Congestion

Blob fees are not magically low; they are subject to supply/demand. A surge in L2 activity or the rise of blob-consuming apps (e.g., EigenDA, Celestia-fueled rollups) could create a competitive blob market, leading to fee spikes and renewed congestion concerns on a new resource.

  • New Fee Market: Blobs have independent, unpredictable pricing.
  • Resource Competition: Between L2s and alt-DA providers.
  • Monitoring Overhead: CTOs must now track two fee markets: gas and blobs.
Volatile
Fee Market
Dual-Track
Cost Monitoring
06

The Bottom Line: A Step-Function, Not a Panacea

EIP-4844 is a necessary infrastructure upgrade that removes the primary bottleneck for L2 scaling. It does not make fees permanently cheap, but it creates the headroom for them to become cheap under normal load. The long-term game is full Danksharding, scaling blobs to ~1.3 MB per slot.

  • Immediate Win: Unlocks current L2 scaling potential.
  • Strategic Bet: Validator load increases to enable user-scale growth.
  • Roadmap Signal: Confirms Ethereum's commitment to rollup-centric scaling.
~1.3 MB/slot
Future Target
Step-Function
In Scaling
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