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mev-the-hidden-tax-of-crypto
Blog

The Future of Rollups Is a Battle Over MEV Accounting

Rollup economics will be decided not by gas fees, but by who controls the billions in sequencer MEV. This analysis maps the coming conflict between users, L2s, and L1 validators.

introduction
THE REAL GAME

Introduction

The evolution of rollups is shifting from raw throughput to the strategic capture and distribution of MEV.

MEV is the new TPS. The primary competition between rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism is no longer about transaction speed but about who controls the value extracted from transaction ordering.

Execution is the new settlement. The core function of a rollup is becoming the management of its execution environment, where MEV is generated, rather than just the cryptographic verification of state.

Shared sequencing is a trojan horse. Proposals from Espresso and Astria are not just about decentralization; they are mechanisms for redistributing MEV revenue from the sequencer to a broader validator set.

Evidence: Over $1.2B in MEV was extracted on Ethereum L1 in 2023. Rollups are now building infrastructure like SUAVE and Revert to capture and internalize this value on L2.

thesis-statement
THE BATTLEFIELD

The Core Thesis: MEV Accounting is the New Economic Primitive

The economic design of rollups will be determined by how they define, capture, and redistribute MEV.

MEV is the ultimate revenue stream. Block builders on Ethereum L1 compete for MEV, but rollups have a structural advantage: they control the sequencer. This grants them a monopoly on ordering rights, which is the source of all MEV. The question is who captures this value.

Shared sequencers like Espresso and Astria create a market. They separate sequencing from execution, forcing rollups to explicitly bid for block space. This transforms MEV from an opaque, sequencer-controlled tax into a transparent auction revenue stream. The rollup with the most valuable user transactions wins the right to order them.

The accounting layer determines the winner. A rollup that can accurately attribute MEV value per user (via intent-based flows or pre-confirmations) can offer better economic terms. Protocols like UniswapX and CowSwap that settle via intent auctions will naturally route to rollups with superior MEV redistribution.

Evidence: Arbitrum sequencer profits, a proxy for captured MEV, have exceeded $200M. A shared sequencer network commoditizes this, turning every rollup into an MEV marketplace. The rollup that best accounts for MEV attracts the most valuable transaction flow.

market-context
THE EXTRACTION PIPELINE

The Current State: Opaque Extraction, Centralized Control

Today's rollup ecosystem is a black box where centralized sequencers capture and privatize MEV, creating a systemic risk to decentralization.

Sequencers are centralized profit centers. The dominant L2 model grants a single entity exclusive rights to order transactions. This creates a natural monopoly on MEV extraction, where value is siphoned from users and developers into a private, opaque auction.

Opaque accounting hides the scale. Unlike Ethereum's public mempool, sequencer order flow is private. This prevents fair MEV redistribution and enables hidden maximal extractable value (MEV) strategies that would be impossible in a transparent system like Ethereum.

The risk is systemic centralization. This model replicates the very problems rollups were meant to solve. Control over transaction ordering is a foundational governance power; centralizing it creates a single point of failure and censorship, undermining the credibly neutral base layer.

Evidence: The sequencer cartel. Over 90% of rollup transaction volume flows through sequencers operated by the founding teams (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism). This centralization is the primary bottleneck enabling the current extraction regime.

THE ARCHITECTURAL BATTLEGROUND

MEV Accounting Models: A Comparative Snapshot

How different rollup architectures define, capture, and distribute the value of transaction ordering (MEV).

Core Feature / MetricCentralized Sequencer (Status Quo)Shared Sequencer Network (e.g., Espresso, Astria)Based Rollup (e.g., Optimism, Arbitrum on L1)

Primary MEV Capture Entity

Rollup Operator / Foundation

Sequencer Network & Validators

L1 Proposer (Builder) & Rollup

MEV Distribution Mechanism

Opaque / Off-chain deals

Auction to builders, revenue share to rollup

Public L1 auction, fees to rollup treasury

Time-to-Finality for User

~1-5 seconds (soft)

~1-2 seconds (soft)

~12 seconds (L1 block time)

Censorship Resistance Guarantee

None (operator discretion)

Economic (decentralized set)

Inherited from L1 (Ethereum)

Interoperability / Atomic Cross-Rollup

False

True (native via shared sequencing layer)

Limited (requires L1 settlement bridge)

Sequencer Failure Risk

High (single point of failure)

Low (decentralized, fault-tolerant)

None (falls back to L1 inclusion)

Implementation Complexity & Overhead

Low

High (consensus, economic security)

Medium (requires L1 smart contract logic)

Exemplar Projects / Protocols

Arbitrum One, Optimism (current)

Eclipse, Fraxchain, dYmension

Optimism (Superchain vision), Arbitrum BOLD

deep-dive
THE ARCHITECTURAL BATTLE

The Three-Way Tug-of-War

The future of rollup design is defined by the conflict between sequencers, builders, and users over who controls and profits from MEV.

Sequencers control the timeline. The entity that orders transactions captures the right to extract MEV. This is why Lido and EigenLayer are building shared sequencer networks to decentralize this power.

Builders execute the extraction. Specialized actors like Flashbots' SUAVE or Jito Labs use sophisticated algorithms to construct the most profitable blocks from the unordered transaction flow.

Users demand credible neutrality. Protocols like UniswapX and CowSwap implement intent-based architectures to bypass traditional ordering, outsourcing execution to a competitive solver network.

The accounting is the protocol. The settlement layer (Ethereum, Celestia) must verify the MEV distribution was fair. This requires new standards like EIP-4844 for data and proof systems that can attest to process integrity.

protocol-spotlight
THE MEV ACCOUNTING WARS

Protocols on the Frontlines

As rollups mature, the critical infrastructure battle shifts from scaling to capturing and redistributing the billions in MEV generated on-chain.

01

Espresso Systems: The Sequencing Marketplace

The Problem: Centralized sequencers are opaque profit centers.\nThe Solution: A decentralized, auction-based sequencing layer that forces rollups like Arbitrum and OP Stack chains to compete for block space.\n- Key Benefit: Sequencer revenue is shared back to the rollup's treasury or users.\n- Key Benefit: Enables fast, cross-rollup atomic composability via its shared sequencer.

~2s
Finality
Shared
Revenue
02

Astria: The Shared Sequencer Network

The Problem: Every rollup reinventing sequencing is wasteful and creates MEV silos.\nThe Solution: A neutral, shared sequencer network that provides decentralized ordering as a service for any rollup.\n- Key Benefit: Rollups retain execution sovereignty but outsource the complex, MEV-heavy ordering layer.\n- Key Benefit: Native cross-rollup liquidity without bridging, as transactions are ordered in a shared mempool.

Sovereign
Execution
Unified
Mempool
03

SUAVE: The Universal MEV Supply Chain

The Problem: MEV extraction is fragmented and inefficient across chains and rollups.\nThe Solution: A decentralized block builder and executor network that becomes the preferred destination for user transactions and searcher bundles.\n- Key Benefit: Decouples transaction flow from execution, creating a competitive market for block building.\n- Key Benefit: Users capture more value via MEV refunds or better execution prices, directly challenging the status quo of UniswapX and CowSwap.

Universal
Flow
Refunds
To Users
04

The Inevitability of Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS)

The Problem: Integrated sequencer-builders have no incentive to minimize MEV or share profits.\nThe Solution: Enshrined PBS, where the sequencer's role is reduced to proposing a block header, while a competitive market of builders (Flashbots, bloXroute) competes to construct the most profitable block.\n- Key Benefit: Censorship resistance is enforced at the protocol level.\n- Key Benefit: Transparent auction reveals the true cost of MEV, enabling efficient redistribution.

Censorship
Resistant
Auction
Transparency
05

MEV-Boost for Rollups

The Problem: Native PBS protocol upgrades are slow.\nThe Solution: An out-of-protocol marketplace, like Ethereum's MEV-Boost, adapted for rollup environments.\n- Key Benefit: Immediate implementation, allowing rollups like zkSync and Starknet to decentralize sequencing today.\n- Key Benefit: Siphons MEV revenue from centralized sequencer operators to a network of builders and proposers.

Now
Deployment
Market
Liquidity
06

The Cross-Chain MEV Endgame

The Problem: Billions in arbitrage and liquidation value is trapped between siloed rollups and L1s.\nThe Solution: Specialized cross-domain MEV relays and intent-based architectures (Across, Socket, LayerZero) that coordinate settlement across heterogeneous systems.\n- Key Benefit: Unlocks a new magnitude of extractable value, increasing economic security.\n- Key Benefit: Forces rollups to compete on MEV redistribution policies to attract liquidity.

Cross-Domain
Arbitrage
Intent-Based
Flow
counter-argument
THE USER'S VIEW

Steelman: "MEV is a Niche Concern, User Experience is Everything"

The dominant rollup will prioritize seamless UX over MEV minimization, treating extraction as a manageable backend cost.

User experience dictates adoption. The average user does not understand MEV; they understand failed transactions and high fees. The rollup that abstracts these complexities wins.

MEV is a tax, not a bug. Protocols like Flashbots Protect and CoW Swap prove users will pay for MEV protection if it's invisible. The winning rollup bakes this protection into its sequencer.

Sequencer design is the battleground. A centralized sequencer, as used by Arbitrum and Optimism, provides superior UX and can internalize MEV. Decentralized sequencers, like Espresso Systems, trade UX for censorship resistance.

Evidence: Arbitrum processes 2x the transactions of Ethereum L1. Its users choose speed and reliability over theoretical MEV guarantees from a decentralized sequencer pool.

risk-analysis
MEV ACCOUNTING WARS

The Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong?

The centralization of MEV accounting and settlement is the next major fault line, threatening rollup neutrality and user trust.

01

The Sequencer Cartel

Dominant rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism control their own sequencers, creating a natural monopoly on transaction ordering and MEV extraction. This central point of failure is a $10B+ TVL honeypot.

  • Risk: Censorship and front-running become institutionalized.
  • Outcome: Rollups become rent-seeking toll booths, not neutral infrastructure.
>70%
L2 Market Share
$10B+
TVL at Risk
02

Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) Fails on L2

Ethereum's PBS model, which separates block building from proposing, may not translate to rollups. Fast finality requirements and low latency favor integrated sequencer-builders.

  • Risk: MEV supply chain remains opaque and centralized.
  • Outcome: Builders like Flashbots and bloXroute are locked out, stifling competition and innovation.
~500ms
Latency Window
0
Active L2 PBS
03

Settlement Layer Capture

Shared sequencing layers like Espresso, Astria, and Near DA aim to decentralize ordering. However, they create a new meta-game: whoever controls the shared sequencer controls the MEV flows for dozens of rollups.

  • Risk: Shifts centralization risk up one layer, creating a systemic single point of failure.
  • Outcome: A new, even more powerful cartel emerges.
1
Single Point
50+
Potential Rollups
04

Enshrined vs. Free-Market MEV

Projects like Fuel with enshrined validity proofs and Aztec with full privacy try to architecturally eliminate MEV. This clashes with free-market models from UniswapX and CowSwap that seek to redistribute it.

  • Risk: Fragmented MEV accounting standards balkanize liquidity and composability.
  • Outcome: Developers must choose chains based on MEV policy, not technical merit.
2
Competing Models
-99%
Potential MEV
05

The Interop MEV Black Hole

Cross-chain messaging protocols like LayerZero, Axelar, and Wormhole introduce cross-domain MEV. Arbitraging between rollups and L1 creates a new attack surface where value is extracted in the interoperability layer.

  • Risk: MEV leaks out of the rollup ecosystem, undermining local fee markets and security budgets.
  • Outcome: Interop protocols become the most profitable—and vulnerable—MEV hubs.
$100M+
Bridge TVL
5+
Attack Vectors
06

Regulatory Attack Vector

Centralized MEV capture creates a clear regulatory target. The SEC could classify sequencer profits as unregistered securities trading or deem MEV extraction as market manipulation.

  • Risk: Forced decentralization via regulation cripples performance and UX.
  • Outcome: The most efficient chains face the greatest legal peril, creating a perverse incentive for inefficiency.
1
Subpoena
100%
Sequencer KYC
future-outlook
THE BATTLEFIELD

The 24-Month Outlook: Hybrid Models and New Primitives

The future of rollups is a battle over MEV accounting, where execution, settlement, and data availability become modular profit centers.

Hybrid execution models win. The monolithic vs. modular debate is a false dichotomy. Chains like Arbitrum and Optimism will adopt modular execution layers (e.g., Espresso, RiscZero) for specific high-MEV applications while retaining a core sequencer for base security and composability.

Settlement becomes a service. Rollups will compete on settlement guarantees, not just speed. ZK-validated settlement layers like Ethereum and Celestia will charge premiums for fast, verifiable finality, creating a new revenue stream distinct from pure data availability.

MEV accounting is the core protocol. The real competition shifts from L1 block space to fair ordering and MEV redistribution. Protocols like SUAVE and Flashbots' MEV-Share will be integrated at the rollup level, determining validator and user rewards.

Evidence: Arbitrum BOLD leverages Ethereum for fraud proof disputes, a hybrid model that uses Ethereum for security-critical settlement while keeping high-throughput execution off-chain. This is the blueprint.

takeaways
THE FUTURE OF ROLLUPS IS A BATTLE OVER MEV ACCOUNTING

Key Takeaways for Builders

The next infrastructure war won't be about TPS; it will be about who controls and accounts for the value extracted from transaction ordering.

01

The Problem: Opaque MEV is a Tax on Your Users

Unaccounted MEV is a direct, hidden cost that degrades user experience and protocol economics. It's not just about sandwich attacks; it's about the systematic extraction of value that should flow to users or the protocol treasury.

  • Result: Up to 50-100 bps of user swap value is lost to searchers.
  • Consequence: Creates a toxic UX where users are structurally disadvantaged, harming adoption.
50-100 bps
Value Leak
0%
Protocol Capture
02

The Solution: Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS)

Force a clean market separation between the entity that builds blocks (Builder) and the one that proposes them (Proposer). This is the foundational accounting layer for MEV.

  • Key Benefit: Enables transparent MEV auctions, moving extraction from the shadows to a public market.
  • Key Benefit: Allows the rollup/sequencer to capture value via auction revenue, which can be used to subsidize transaction costs or fund the treasury.
>90%
MEV Visibility
Protocol-Owned
Revenue Stream
03

The Architecture: Integrate an Intent-Based Solver Network

Move beyond simple transaction execution. Let users express what they want (e.g., "best price for 1 ETH"), not how to do it. Solvers (like those in CowSwap, UniswapX) compete to fulfill intents optimally.

  • Key Benefit: User gets guaranteed, MEV-resistant outcomes. The solver absorbs complexity and frontrunning risk.
  • Key Benefit: The rollup's PBS auction now includes solver competition, creating a more efficient and value-capturing market layer.
MEV-Resistant
User Outcome
Multi-Source
Liquidity
04

The Competitor: Shared Sequencer Networks (Espresso, Astria)

These are horizontal services aiming to become the neutral PBS layer for multiple rollups. They promise cross-rollup MEV capture and atomic composability.

  • Key Benefit: Offers smaller rollups a battle-tested MEV accounting and ordering system without bespoke development.
  • Key Benefit: Unlocks cross-rollup atomic arbitrage, a new MEV category that a solo rollup cannot access alone.
  • Risk: Cedes critical sequencing sovereignty and economic upside to a third-party network.
Cross-Rollup
Atomic Combo
Sovereignty
Trade-off
05

The Endgame: MEV-Aware Rollup Stacks (Fuel, Eclipse)

Next-gen rollups are being designed from the ground up with explicit MEV accounting and PBS as a first-class citizen. This is a full-stack architectural advantage.

  • Key Benefit: Native integration allows for more efficient block building, faster proof generation, and optimized fee markets.
  • Key Benefit: Tighter integration between execution, settlement, and data availability layers creates a more defensible and high-performance system versus modular "plug-and-play" approaches.
Native
Integration
Full-Stack
Advantage
06

The Action: Build Your Own MEV Accounting Dashboard

You cannot manage what you cannot measure. The first step for any serious rollup team is to instrument their chain to track MEV flows with the precision of an exchange.

  • Track: Searcher profit per block, win-rate of dominant builders, protocol revenue from PBS auctions.
  • Benchmark: Compare your MEV leakage and capture rates against benchmarks like Arbitrum after its PBS rollout or Optimism's upcoming auction design.
  • Goal: Turn MEV from a cost center into a transparent, manageable, and potentially profitable part of your protocol economics.
Real-Time
Analytics
Cost -> Profit
Paradigm Shift
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