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algorithmic-stablecoins-failures-and-future
Blog

Why Rebase Mechanisms Are a Flawed Foundation for Credit

A technical breakdown of why elastic supply models, popularized by Ampleforth, structurally fail as credit instruments by socializing losses across all holders instead of isolating borrower risk.

introduction
THE FLAWED PREMISE

Introduction

Rebase mechanisms, popularized by Ampleforth and Olympus DAO, are a structurally unsound foundation for credit systems.

Rebase mechanisms create synthetic volatility. They attempt to achieve price stability by algorithmically adjusting token supply in response to demand, decoupling price from market sentiment. This introduces a new, non-market risk for lenders.

Credit requires predictable collateral value. A lending protocol like Aave or Compound relies on stable collateral to manage risk. A rebasing asset's supply volatility directly translates to unpredictable collateral ratios, forcing constant, costly rebalancing.

The Olympus DAO experiment proved this. Its high-APY 'bonding' model was a rebase-adjacent mechanism that collapsed when the reflexive feedback loop between price, supply, and demand broke, erasing billions in perceived collateral value.

deep-dive
THE FOUNDATION

The Anatomy of a Flaw: Rebase vs. Isolated Credit

Rebase mechanics are a flawed foundation for credit systems because they conflate monetary policy with user collateral.

Rebase conflates monetary policy. It adjusts all token balances to target a price peg, directly manipulating user collateral. This creates systemic risk where a protocol's monetary failure becomes every user's balance sheet failure, as seen in the collapse of OlympusDAO's (3,3) model.

Isolated credit isolates risk. Systems like Aave and Compound use isolated collateral pools where a user's debt is secured by their specific deposited assets. A depegging event in one pool does not automatically liquidate unrelated positions, preventing contagion.

The flaw is structural. A rebase token like Ampleforth cannot function as stable collateral because its supply volatility introduces unpredictable liquidation thresholds. This violates the first principle of credit: collateral must have predictable, non-correlated value.

Evidence: The total value locked (TVL) in rebase-based credit protocols is negligible compared to isolated leaders. Aave's ~$12B TVL demonstrates market preference for predictable, non-dilutive collateral mechanics over rebase's inherent volatility.

WHY REBASE IS A FLAWED FOUNDATION

Credit Mechanism Comparison: Rebase vs. Established Models

A first-principles breakdown of credit issuance mechanics, comparing the fundamental flaws of rebase tokens against established models like over-collateralization and under-collateralized credit.

Core MechanismRebase Token (e.g., Ampleforth, Olympus)Over-Collateralized (e.g., MakerDAO, Liquity)Under-Collateralized (e.g., Maple, Goldfinch)

Credit Issuance Trigger

Algorithmic supply adjustment

User deposits collateral > debt value

Off-chain underwriting & on-chain pool

Primary Risk Bearer

All token holders (via dilution)

Individual borrower (liquidation)

Pool lenders & protocol (default)

Price Stability Mechanism

Supply elasticity targeting $1

Liquidation auctions & stability fees

Not applicable (loans in stablecoins)

Liquidation Process

None (failure = permanent depeg)

Automatic, <110% collateral ratio (Liquity)

Legal recourse & reserve funds

Maximum Theoretical LTV

N/A (no collateral locked)

90% (e.g., 110% min. collateral ratio)

~0% to 100% (set by underwriter)

Protocol Revenue Model

Treasury sales (OHM), seigniorage

Stability fees (e.g., DAI: variable ~1-8%)

Origination fees (e.g., Maple: 1-2%)

Attack Vector

Reflexive death spiral on depeg

Collateral value volatility (e.g., ETH crash)

Borrower default & underwriting failure

Proven Scale (TVL Peak)

$1.2B (OHM, Nov 2021)

$10B+ (MakerDAO, 2022)

$1.5B (Maple, Apr 2022)

counter-argument
THE FOUNDATIONAL FLAW

Steelman: Isn't Rebase Just a Volatility Tool?

Rebase mechanisms are a flawed foundation for credit because they conflate price discovery with balance manipulation, creating systemic risk.

Rebase conflates price and supply. A rebasing token like Ampleforth attempts to stabilize purchasing power by algorithmically adjusting token balances in every wallet. This creates a synthetic peg that avoids the oracle dependency of MakerDAO's DAI but introduces a worse problem: user balances are non-custodially altered, breaking the fundamental expectation of a stable unit of account.

It's a volatility sponge, not capital. The mechanism absorbs price volatility by diluting or concentrating holders, which is mathematically equivalent to a perpetual, forced leveraged position. This makes the token unsuitable as collateral in lending markets like Aave or Compound, as liquidations become unpredictable and the value of locked collateral can change without market action.

The proof is in adoption. No major DeFi protocol uses a rebasing token as a primary stable asset or core collateral type. The failure of OlympusDAO's (3,3) model and the niche status of Ampleforth demonstrate that markets reject balance volatility as a solution for stability. The mechanism optimizes for a chart, not for utility.

case-study
WHY REBASE MECHANICS ARE A FLAWED FOUNDATION FOR CREDIT

Case Studies in Elastic Supply Failure

Elastic supply tokens, designed to peg via algorithmic rebasing, consistently fail as stable assets because they confuse price stability with monetary policy.

01

Ampleforth: The Original Sin of Rebase Volatility

The 2020-2021 experiment proved that daily supply adjustments are a poor user experience and a worse unit of account. Its rebase mechanic created negative convexity, punishing holders during sell-offs and creating unpredictable collateral value for DeFi protocols.

  • Key Failure: Daily supply volatility of ±10% made it unusable as a stable medium of exchange.
  • Key Lesson: A token whose quantity in your wallet changes daily cannot function as reliable credit collateral.
±10%
Daily Rebase
>90%
From ATH
02

Terra's UST: Death Spiral by Design

UST's algorithmic peg to Luna created a reflexive, non-diversifiable liability. The mint/burn arbitrage mechanism worked in a bull market but became a positive feedback loop for destruction during a bank run, vaporizing ~$40B in market cap.

  • Key Failure: Reflexivity meant peg defense drained the sole backing asset (LUNA), accelerating collapse.
  • Key Lesson: Elastic supply requires an exogenous, non-correlated asset for stabilization, not a symbiotic twin.
$40B
TVL Evaporated
3 Days
To Depeg
03

Olympus DAO (3,3): Ponzinomics Masquerading as Policy

OHM's high APY was funded by protocol-owned liquidity and bond sales, not organic demand. The "elastic" supply was only upward, inflating away holder value to pay stakers. The model collapsed when the ponzi inflow of new capital stopped.

  • Key Failure: Supply elasticity was one-way (inflationary), destroying the peg from above.
  • Key Lesson: Rebasing without a genuine demand anchor is just a cleverly marketed dilution scheme.
7000%+
Peak APY
-99%
From ATH
04

The Fundamental Flaw: Rebasing ≠ Creditworthiness

Elastic supply confuses a price target with the institutional trust required for credit. A lender cannot underwrite a loan against collateral whose quantity is variable. True stable credit requires exogenous assets (like USDC's treasuries) or overcollateralization (like MakerDAO's DAI).

  • Key Failure: No lender of last resort exists in a purely algorithmic system.
  • Key Lesson: For decentralized credit, stability must come from asset backing, not supply gymnastics.
0
Successful Credit Primitive
100%
Failure Rate
takeaways
WHY REBASE MECHANICS ARE A FLAWED FOUNDATION FOR CREDIT

TL;DR: The Builder's Checklist

Rebase tokens, which adjust supply to target a price, create systemic risks that make them unsuitable as collateral for decentralized credit markets.

01

The Oracle Problem: Manipulable Price Feeds

Rebase mechanics rely on a single, manipulable price feed to trigger supply changes. This creates a single point of failure for any credit protocol using them as collateral.\n- Attack Vector: A flash loan can temporarily skew the price, triggering an unintended rebase and liquidating positions.\n- Systemic Risk: This fragility is reminiscent of the MakerDAO oracle attacks, but with automated, protocol-enforced consequences.

1
Single Point of Failure
100%
Protocol-Enforced
02

The Collateral Problem: Non-Stationary Balance

A loan collateralized with 100 rebase tokens can become 90 tokens after a negative rebase, violating the fundamental fixed-supply assumption of lending protocols like Aave or Compound.\n- Unpredictable LTV: The collateral's quantity and thus its value in the protocol is externally controlled, breaking risk models.\n- Guaranteed Bad Debt: During a price decline, the rebase reduces the collateral amount precisely when more is needed, accelerating insolvency.

Dynamic
Collateral Supply
Broken
Risk Model
03

The Solution: Price-Indexed Debt & Isolated Pools

The viable path is to treat rebase tokens not as collateral, but as a unit of account for debt, or to severely isolate their risk.\n- Price-Indexed Vaults: Protocols like MakerDAO's Real-World Asset vaults index debt to a stable value, not a token quantity.\n- Isolated Risk: Lending markets must relegate rebase assets to isolated pools with zero cross-collateralization, as seen with high-risk assets on Solend or Radiant.

Isolated
Risk Pools
Indexed
Debt Unit
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Why Rebase Mechanisms Fail as Credit Instruments | ChainScore Blog