Why Modularity Makes MEV Quantification Nearly Impossible

MEV quantification is now impossible because the value flow is no longer contained within a single state machine. Modular architectures like Celestia, EigenDA, and Arbitrum Nitro delegate execution, settlement, and data availability to specialized layers, creating a fragmented MEV supply chain.

Traditional mempool analysis fails as intents and orders route through off-chain networks like UniswapX or private RPCs such as Flashbots Protect. The auction for block space is no longer the sole, observable market; it is preceded by opaque off-chain coordination.

Settlement and DA layers introduce new extractable value. Proposers on EigenLayer restaking pools or validators on Celestia can extract value by manipulating data ordering or availability, creating cross-domain MEV that is invisible to execution layer analysis.

Evidence: Over 60% of Ethereum DEX volume now routes through intent-based systems or private orderflow, according to CowSwap and UniswapX data. This volume is invisible to public mempool scrapers, representing a fundamental data gap.

MEV is now multi-chain. A single user swap now traverses a rollup, a shared sequencer network like Espresso, and a settlement layer like Celestia. Traditional block explorers like Etherscan see only the final settlement proof, not the auction dynamics on the rollup sequencer.

Sequencer-level MEV is invisible. Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism batch transactions off-chain. The profit extracted from ordering within that batch is a black box, unreported to Flashbots' mev-boost or EigenPhi. This creates a massive, unmeasured MEV pool.

Cross-domain MEV compounds the problem. An arbitrage between Ethereum mainnet and Base involves a bridge like Across. The optimal routing exploits price differences across both domains and the bridging latency, creating MEV that no single-chain analyzer can capture.

Evidence: Over 60% of DEX volume now occurs on L2s (L2Beat), but MEV dashboards track less than 5% of total value there. The quantified $1B+ in extracted MEV is a severe undercount, missing the modular stack's hidden liquidity.

MEV is now multi-chain. The monolithic chain model concentrated MEV data within a single sequencer's mempool. Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism now operate independent sequencers, fragmenting the data source and creating blind spots for traditional extractors like Flashbots.

Cross-domain MEV is invisible. Atomic arbitrage between an L2 and Ethereum mainnet, or across rollups via a bridge like Across or LayerZero, creates value that no single chain's data can fully capture. This inter-blockchain MEV escapes current measurement frameworks.

Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) compounds opacity. With PBS, the entity proposing the block (e.g., an L2 sequencer) is separate from the builder assembling transactions. This adds a data silo between the raw transaction flow and the final block, obscuring the builder's profit extraction strategies.

Evidence: Flashbots' mev-boost relay, which standardized MEV data on Ethereum, has no direct equivalent in modular stacks. The lack of a canonical data feed for rollup sequencer mempools proves the quantification infrastructure does not exist.

Aggregators centralize MEV quantification by routing user transactions through a single, off-chain solver network. This creates a clear point for measuring extracted value, as seen in CowSwap's batch auctions or UniswapX's fill competition.

Modular execution fragments the data layer, scattering transaction flow across rollups, validiums, and app-chains. A user's cross-chain swap via Across or LayerZero involves multiple, isolated sequencer markets, making holistic MEV tracking impossible.

The aggregator becomes just another client in a multi-sequencer world. Its view is limited to the liquidity it can access, missing MEV captured by native chain sequencers like those on Arbitrum or Optimism before orders reach the aggregator.

Evidence: Flashbots' SUAVE aims to be a universal mempool but struggles with rollup sequencer exclusivity. A solver on Polygon zkEVM cannot see or quantify MEV opportunities being captured privately on the Base sequencer.

MEV quantification becomes impossible because the value extraction pipeline fragments across independent, non-communicating layers. A sequencer on Arbitrum Nova captures a bundle, a solver on CowSwap executes a cross-chain intent, and a proposer on Ethereum finalizes the block—no single entity sees the full profit trail.

Specialized execution layers create data silos. An MEV opportunity that starts on Base and routes through a shared sequencer like Espresso before settling on Celestia is inherently unobservable. Each layer's economic model and data availability solution determines what, if any, MEV data is exposed.

Cross-domain MEV is the primary blind spot. The most lucrative strategies involve atomic arbitrage across Optimism, zkSync, and Polygon zkEVM via bridges like Across or LayerZero. This inter-chain value flow is invisible to any single chain's analytics tools like EigenPhi or Flashbots MEV-Explore.

Evidence: Over 60% of Ethereum's PBS flow is now opaque private orderflow, a trend accelerating with modular rollups. Arbitrum sequencers process millions of transactions daily, but their internal ordering and potential MEV capture are proprietary black boxes.