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the-modular-blockchain-thesis-explained
Blog

The Future of Rollup Economics: MEV as a Primary Revenue Stream

An analysis of how MEV extraction by sequencers will eclipse traditional gas fees, fundamentally altering the profitability and competitive dynamics of Layer 2 rollups.

introduction
THE SHIFT

Introduction

The economic model for rollups is pivoting from simple transaction fees to a more complex, value-extractive system centered on MEV.

MEV is the new rent. Rollup revenue historically came from base transaction fees paid by users. The next phase monetizes the latent value within the transaction ordering itself, creating a primary revenue stream that subsidizes network costs.

This is not L1 MEV. On Ethereum, MEV flows to validators and searchers. A rollup's sequencer holds a monopoly on ordering, allowing it to internalize value that would otherwise leak to external actors, creating a powerful economic flywheel.

Protocols are already adapting. Projects like Arbitrum with its Timeboost auction and Optimism exploring MEV-sharing via MEV-Boost attestations are formalizing this transition. The model shifts from a pure utility to a financial infrastructure layer.

Evidence: In Q1 2024, MEV on Ethereum mainnet generated over $400M. Rollups capturing even a fraction of this value for their own treasuries and users will redefine their sustainability.

thesis-statement
THE REVENUE FLIP

The Core Thesis

Sequencer revenue will shift from simple transaction fees to sophisticated MEV extraction, fundamentally altering rollup economics and governance.

MEV is the primary revenue. Rollups currently monetize via a small fee spread on L1 settlement. This model is unsustainable against the capital costs of decentralization. The real value accrues from ordering transactions, a right sequencers will monetize through proposer-builder separation (PBS) and direct integration with MEV supply chains like Flashbots' SUAVE.

Sequencers become profit centers. This transforms the sequencer role from a cost center to the core profit engine. Revenue from backrunning DEX arbitrage or liquidating undercollateralized loans will dwarf base fees, creating intense competition for the sequencing right and new governance challenges around its allocation.

Evidence: On Ethereum, MEV represents ~5-10% of total miner/validator revenue. For a high-throughput rollup like Arbitrum processing billions in volume, capturing even 1% of that flow through permissioned MEV auctions or a shared sequencer network like Espresso Systems creates a revenue stream orders of magnitude larger than today's fee model.

market-context
THE SUBSIDY TRAP

The Current State: Subsidies and Scarcity

Today's rollups operate on a model of subsidized user fees, masking a fundamental lack of sustainable on-chain revenue.

Sequencer revenue is negative. Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism currently charge users less for L2 gas than they pay to post data to Ethereum L1. This creates a structural deficit funded by venture capital, not protocol economics.

The scarcity model is broken. Relying solely on block space demand for revenue fails because rollups create abundant, cheap blockspace. This commoditizes the base layer fee market, making it an unreliable primary income source.

Evidence: Arbitrum sequencer revenue from base fees has been consistently negative, with the shortfall covered by its DAO treasury. This is a subsidy, not a sustainable business model.

ROLLUP REVENUE MODEL ANALYSIS

The Revenue Tipping Point: MEV vs. Gas

Comparative analysis of primary revenue sources for Layer 2 rollups, highlighting the shift from gas-based to MEV-based models.

Revenue Feature / MetricGas-First Model (e.g., Optimism, Arbitrum)MEV-First Model (e.g., Espresso, Astria)Hybrid Model (e.g., Fuel, Aztec)

Primary Revenue Source

Sequencer Gas Fees

MEV Auction Revenue

Gas + MEV Redistribution

Avg. Revenue per Tx (Est.)

$0.10 - $0.30

$0.50 - $2.00+

$0.20 - $0.80

Revenue Predictability

High (Correlates with L1 gas)

Volatile (Depends on MEV opportunity)

Moderate (Blended stream)

Requires Native Token for Fees

Typically Yes

No (Can use ETH or stablecoins)

Often Yes

MEV Capture & Redistribution

Sequencer keeps 100%

Public auction > 80% to L2 DAO

Configurable (e.g., 50/50 split)

User Experience Impact

Predictable, simple cost

Potential for negative gas via rebates

Complex, model-dependent

Key Dependency

Ethereum L1 Gas Price

Cross-domain MEV flow (e.g., via shared sequencers)

Protocol-specific rule enforcement

Adoption Stage

Production (All major rollups)

Pilot (Testnets, early integrations)

Research / Niche Mainnet

deep-dive
THE REVENUE SHIFT

The Mechanics of the Sequencer Cash Machine

Sequencer revenue is transitioning from simple transaction fees to a sophisticated extraction of MEV and cross-chain value.

Sequencers are MEV aggregators. Their primary economic role is not ordering transactions but capturing and redistributing value from atomic arbitrage, liquidations, and DEX flow. This transforms them from passive infrastructure into active financial intermediaries.

Cross-chain intent fulfillment is the new frontier. Protocols like UniswapX and Across abstract user transactions into intents, which sequencers can fulfill across chains via bridges like LayerZero. This captures value previously lost to standalone bridges and DEX aggregators.

Revenue splits will define protocol politics. The share of MEV revenue distributed to the L1 (via base fees), the DAO treasury, and stakers creates a new political economy. This is the core governance battle for rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism.

Evidence: Over 90% of Arbitrum's sequencer revenue in Q1 2024 came from MEV, not standard gas fees, according to EigenPhi. This proves the model is already operational.

protocol-spotlight
ROLLUP ECONOMICS

Architecting for the MEV-First Future

The next generation of rollups will treat MEV not as a bug, but as a core, programmable revenue source to subsidize user costs and fund protocol development.

01

The Problem: MEV is a Public Good Leak

Today, searchers and builders capture ~99% of MEV value, while the underlying rollup sequencer only earns base transaction fees. This is a massive opportunity cost for the protocol treasury.

  • Value Leak: Billions in MEV flow to third parties.
  • Misaligned Incentives: The protocol that provides the blockspace sees minimal direct benefit.
  • User Harm: Extracted value ultimately comes from end-users via worse prices and frontrunning.
>99%
Value Leak
$1B+
Annual MEV
02

The Solution: Programmable MEV Auctions (PMA)

Embed a first-price auction for block-building rights directly into the sequencer. This turns MEV into a predictable, on-chain revenue stream for the rollup.

  • Direct Capture: The sequencer/treasury wins the auction, capturing MEV profit.
  • Subsidized Fees: Revenue can be used to lower gas costs for users.
  • Transparent Pricing: Creates a public market price for blockspace priority, as seen in protocols like Flashbots SUAVE and EigenLayer's restaking vision.
30-80%
Revenue Boost
~0 Gas
User Subsidy
03

The Problem: Centralized Sequencer Risk

A single, profit-maximizing sequencer is a single point of failure and censorship. It also creates a monopoly on MEV capture, stifling competition and innovation in block building.

  • Censorship Vector: A malicious or compliant sequencer can reorder or exclude transactions.
  • Inefficiency: A single builder cannot match the optimization of a competitive builder market.
  • Stagnation: No competitive pressure to improve MEV extraction techniques.
1
Point of Failure
100%
Market Share
04

The Solution: Decentralized Sequencing with MEV-Share

Implement a permissionless set of sequencers that participate in a shared MEV market. Inspired by Espresso Systems and Astria, this separates block production from proposal.

  • Censorship Resistance: No single entity controls transaction ordering.
  • Builder Competition: Multiple builders compete for MEV, improving efficiency and revenue.
  • Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS): Allows for specialized, optimized builders while the decentralized sequencer set maintains liveness and fairness.
N > 10
Sequencers
+50%
Efficiency Gain
05

The Problem: Opaque, User-Hostile MEV

Traditional MEV is a zero-sum game between users and extractors. Searchers profit at the direct expense of user slippage and failed transactions, creating a poor UX and eroding trust in the chain.

  • Negative Externality: Users bear the cost via sandwich attacks and frontrunning.
  • Trust Erosion: The chain is perceived as a predatory environment.
  • Inefficient Markets: Opaque order flow prevents users from capturing their own order flow value.
$200M+
User Losses
High
Slippage
06

The Solution: Encrypted Mempools & Order Flow Auctions

Integrate threshold encryption for transaction privacy and run order flow auctions (OFAs). This allows users to sell their order flow intent directly to builders, capturing value and guaranteeing execution quality. This is the model pioneered by Flashbots Protect, CowSwap, and UniswapX.

  • User Profit: Users earn a rebate or better price for their order flow.
  • MEV Democratization: Shifts value from adversarial searchers back to users and the protocol.
  • Improved UX: Guaranteed, non-exploitative execution builds long-term trust.
90%+
MEV Returned
Best Execution
Guarantee
counter-argument
THE INCENTIVE MISMATCH

The Counter-Argument: Can't We Just Decentralize Sequencers?

Decentralizing sequencer selection fails to solve the core economic problem of funding sustainable rollup operations.

Decentralization does not create revenue. A decentralized sequencer set, like the one proposed by Espresso Systems or Astria, merely rotates block-building rights. This distributes MEV capture but does not inherently generate more value for the rollup's treasury.

The revenue model remains extractive. Whether one or many sequencers, the primary income is still user transaction fees and captured MEV. This creates a zero-sum relationship with the applications and users the rollup is meant to serve.

Proof-of-Stake sequencing is insufficient. A validator/staker model for sequencers, as seen in Polygon's AggLayer vision, shifts costs to capital lockup. This does not create a new, sustainable revenue stream; it just changes the cost structure.

The comparison is flawed. Decentralization addresses liveness and censorship resistance. It is orthogonal to the economic sustainability question. A decentralized but unprofitable sequencer set will collapse or require perpetual subsidization from a foundation.

risk-analysis
ROLLUP REVENUE MODELS

The Inevitable Risks and Conflicts

As sequencer revenue shifts from pure gas to MEV extraction, new economic and governance tensions emerge.

01

The Sequencer's Dilemma: Public Good vs. Private Profit

Sequencers are incentivized to maximize MEV capture, which directly conflicts with user experience and network neutrality. This creates a principal-agent problem where the sequencer's profit motive is misaligned with the rollup's stated goals of low-cost, fair execution.

  • Conflict: Extracting MEV via frontrunning or sandwiching degrades UX.
  • Risk: Centralized sequencers can become rent-seeking bottlenecks.
  • Mitigation: Enshrined PBS (Proposer-Builder Separation) and credible neutrality commitments.
>60%
of L2 Revenue
1 Entity
Typical Control
02

MEV Redistribution: The Governance War

Who captures the value determines the political future of the rollup. A fight emerges between the foundation, token holders, sequencer operators, and users over how to redistribute extracted MEV.

  • Stakeholder Conflict: Should MEV fund protocol treasury, be burned, or be redistributed via rebates?
  • Precedent: Ethereum's PBS (Proposer-Builder Separation) and EIP-1559 set a template for value distribution.
  • Outcome: Poorly designed redistribution leads to governance capture and centralization.
$100M+
Annual Value at Stake
4+ Factions
In Conflict
03

The Interop MEV Attack Surface

Cross-chain intents and bridges (e.g., LayerZero, Across) create new arbitrage vectors that rollup sequencers are uniquely positioned to exploit, threatening the security of interoperability protocols.

  • New Vector: Cross-domain MEV allows sequencers to manipulate asset prices during the bridging delay.
  • Systemic Risk: A malicious sequencer can launch liveness attacks on optimistic bridges.
  • Solution: Requires verifiable delay functions (VDFs) and shared sequencing layers like Espresso or Astria.
~30s
Vulnerability Window
2+ Layers
Complexity Added
04

The Verifier's Paradox: Proving Cost vs. MEV Theft

The cost of fraud or validity proofs creates a security budget. If MEV extraction exceeds the cost of bribing verifiers or delaying proofs, the system's cryptographic security can be economically broken.

  • Core Risk: A $10M MEV opportunity can justify a $1M bribe to sabotage proof submission.
  • Economic Security: Proof costs must scale with potential sequencer profit.
  • Mitigation: Decentralized proof networks and substantial stake slashing.
10:1
Profit-to-Bribe Ratio
$1M+
Stake Required
05

Intents as a Regulatory Escape Hatch

Intent-based architectures (e.g., UniswapX, CowSwap) abstract transaction construction away from users, centralizing MEV capture in solvers. This may attract regulatory scrutiny as it resembles broker-dealer activity.

  • Regulatory Risk: Solvers acting as 'dealers' could fall under securities or commodities laws.
  • Centralization Force: Efficient solving requires specialized capital and data, leading to oligopoly.
  • Outcome: The most profitable MEV streams become professionalized, licensed activities.
Oligopoly
Solver Market
High
Regulatory Risk
06

The Shared Sequencer Centralization Trap

Shared sequencers (Espresso, Astria) solve individual rollup centralization but create a meta-centralization point. Controlling the shared layer grants influence over dozens of chains and their combined MEV, creating a single point of failure and censorship.

  • New Risk: Replaces N sequencer risks with 1 systemic risk.
  • Power Concentration: The shared sequencer becomes the most powerful entity in the rollup ecosystem.
  • Mitigation: Requires robust cryptographic decentralization and anti-collusion mechanisms from day one.
1 Layer
To Rule All
100+ Chains
Potential Control
future-outlook
THE REVENUE FLIP

The 24-Month Outlook: From Utilities to Markets

Sequencer revenue will shift from transaction fees to MEV extraction, transforming rollups from infrastructure utilities into sophisticated financial markets.

Sequencers become MEV markets. Today, rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism generate revenue from a simple transaction fee spread. In 24 months, their primary revenue will be proposer-builder separation (PBS) and MEV auction mechanics, turning the sequencer role into a competitive market for block space value.

The fee model inverts. The current model subsidizes users with low fees. The future model uses cross-domain MEV and intent-based flows (via UniswapX, CowSwap) to capture value, potentially allowing sequencers to offer negative transaction fees, paying users for the right to order their transactions.

Shared sequencers accelerate this. Projects like Espresso and Astria create a liquid market for block building. This commoditizes sequencing hardware and shifts competition to MEV extraction efficiency, forcing rollups to specialize in specific transaction types (e.g., DeFi, gaming) to maximize captured value.

Evidence: The Arbitrum precedent. Arbitrum sequencer revenue from MEV-boost auctions on Ethereum already exists. As rollup activity grows, this cross-chain value capture will dwarf native gas fees, making MEV not a bug but the core business model.

takeaways
ROLLUP ECONOMICS

Key Takeaways for Builders and Investors

MEV is transitioning from a parasitic tax to a foundational, programmable revenue layer for rollups.

01

The Problem: MEV is a Deadweight Loss

Traditional on-chain MEV is extracted by searchers and validators, creating a negative-sum game for users and sequencers. This manifests as front-running, sandwich attacks, and unpredictable slippage, eroding trust and capital efficiency.\n- User Cost: Billions extracted annually via arbitrage and liquidations.\n- Sequencer Cost: Revenue leakage to L1 proposers via PBS auctions.

$1B+
Annual Extract
>90%
Leaked Revenue
02

The Solution: Programmable MEV as a Public Good

Rollups can internalize and redistribute MEV by controlling the sequencer. This transforms it into a sustainable, on-chain revenue stream that can fund protocol development and user incentives.\n- Revenue Capture: Sequencer profits from arbitrage and liquidations.\n- Redistribution: Funds can be directed to a public goods fund or used for user rebates (e.g., gas subsidies).

10-30%
Revenue Boost
$0
User Rebates
03

The Architecture: Intent-Based Order Flow

The future is not transaction-based, but intent-based. Systems like UniswapX and CowSwap demonstrate that users submit desired outcomes, not raw transactions. This allows for off-chain solving and MEV recapture.\n- Efficiency: Batch solving reduces gas costs by ~50%.\n- Privacy: Solvers compete on outcome, preventing front-running.

50%
Gas Saved
0ms
Front-Run Risk
04

The Competition: Shared Sequencers & Cross-Chain MEV

Projects like Astria and Espresso are commoditizing sequencing. This creates a market for MEV-aware sequencing where rollups can auction block space. It also enables cross-rollup arbitrage as a native feature.\n- Market Dynamics: Sequencers bid for the right to capture MEV.\n- Interoperability: Unlocks cross-chain MEV opportunities across L2s.

>100k TPS
Shared Capacity
New Asset
Cross-Chain MEV
05

The Risk: Centralization & Regulatory Scrutiny

Controlling MEV revenue centralizes power with the sequencer operator, creating a single point of failure and censorship. This attracts regulatory attention as it resembles traditional financial intermediation.\n- Censorship Risk: Sequencer can reorder or exclude transactions.\n- SEC Risk: MEV revenue may be classified as securities trading profit.

1 Entity
Control Point
High
Regulatory Risk
06

The Investment Thesis: MEV-Aware Infrastructure

The winning stack will be MEV-native. Build and invest in: intent solvers, shared sequencer networks, MEV-optimized VMs (like Fuel), and privacy-preserving order flow auctions. The moat is in efficient extraction and fair redistribution.\n- Builder Focus: Design protocols where MEV is a feature, not a bug.\n- Investor Focus: Back infrastructure that commoditizes or optimizes the MEV supply chain.

$10B+
Market Potential
New Layer
Infrastructure Stack
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