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the-ethereum-roadmap-merge-surge-verge
Blog

Ethereum Governance and Backward Compatibility Decisions

Ethereum's commitment to backward compatibility is its greatest strength and most dangerous weakness. This analysis dissects the governance trade-offs between preserving the old EVM and enabling the new roadmap (Merge, Surge, Verge), arguing that technical debt is now a systemic security risk.

introduction
THE GOVERNANCE CONSTRAINT

The Immutable Anchor: How Backward Compatibility Became Ethereum's Ball and Chain

Ethereum's commitment to preserving the state of every smart contract has created a governance model where technical debt is immortalized.

Backward compatibility is non-negotiable. The core social contract of Ethereum is that deployed code remains executable forever. This prevents breaking changes that would invalidate billions in locked value, from Uniswap v2 pools to MakerDAO's vaults, but it also ossifies design flaws.

Governance becomes risk management. Upgrades like EIP-1559 or the Merge required years of consensus-building because a single bug risks the entire network's immutable ledger. This contrasts with Solana's coordinated restart model or Cosmos's app-chain sovereignty, where failures are contained.

The EVM is a fossil. The original Ethereum Virtual Machine design, with its 256-bit words and gas model, is inefficient for modern ZK-proof generation. Layer 2s like Arbitrum and zkSync must build complex, expensive compilers to translate this legacy architecture instead of designing optimal VMs from scratch.

Evidence: The Shanghai Upgrade. Unlocking staked ETH required a hard fork that coordinated dozens of client teams and delayed other critical improvements. The process demonstrated that protocol governance is now primarily about safely navigating accumulated technical debt.

thesis-statement
THE GOVERNANCE TRAP

Core Thesis: Backward Compatibility is a Governance-Driven Security Liability

Ethereum's commitment to preserving legacy state creates a permanent attack surface that is controlled by social consensus, not cryptography.

Backward compatibility is a social contract. Ethereum's core promise to never break existing applications forces security decisions into the political arena of governance forums like Ethereum Magicians and ACD calls.

The EVM is a liability. Maintaining the original Ethereum Virtual Machine opcodes and state structure preserves bugs and inefficiencies, creating a permanent attack surface that tools like Slither and MythX must constantly patrol.

Governance decides security. Critical fixes, like those for reentrancy or gas griefing, require social consensus to implement, creating a lag that protocols like Aave and Compound must hedge against with their own circuit breakers.

Evidence: The Berlin and London hard forks introduced EIP-2929 and EIP-1559, which were security and economic upgrades that risked breaking obscure dApp logic, demonstrating how core improvements are inherently political.

DECISION MATRIX

The Compatibility Tax: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Critical EIPs

Comparing the trade-offs between breaking changes for major upgrades and maintaining full backward compatibility.

EIP / FeatureBreak Compatibility (Hard Fork)Maintain Compatibility (Soft Fork / Layer 2)Status Quo (No Change)

EIP-1559: Fee Market Reform

Permanent base fee burn, predictable pricing

Complex fee auction logic via L2 sequencers

First-price auction, volatile fees

EIP-4844: Proto-Danksharding

Native blob data, ~$0.01 per 125 KB

Relies on external data availability layers

Calldata only, ~$100+ per 125 KB

Statelessness / Verkle Trees

~99% reduction in state growth, enables light clients

State expiry complexity, requires new client logic

State grows ~50 GB/year, sync times increase

Single-Slot Finality (SSF)

12-second finality, eliminates reorg risk

Relies on L2 fast-finality bridges (e.g., Arbitrum BOLD)

~15 minute probabilistic finality

Account Abstraction (ERC-4337)

Native protocol support, ~20k gas overhead

Bundler network required, ~42k gas overhead

EOA-only, no social recovery or batched ops

Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) Mitigation

In-protocol PBS, reduces validator advantage

Relayer networks (e.g., Flashbots SUAVE, CowSwap)

Open searcher market, high gas auctions

deep-dive
THE STATE CRISIS

Case Study: The Verge & The Perpetual State Bloat Problem

Ethereum's Verge upgrade solves execution scaling but exposes the unsolved, existential threat of perpetual state growth.

Verge enables stateless clients by moving to Verkle trees, allowing nodes to validate blocks without storing the full state. This reduces hardware requirements for consensus participants, but it is a client-side optimization, not a protocol-level solution. The global state database continues its unbounded growth, a cost externalized to full nodes and infrastructure providers.

State bloat is a subsidy problem. Applications like Uniswap and Lido accrue value by writing permanent data to the chain, but they do not pay the full cost of storing that data forever. This creates a tragedy of the commons where protocol success directly increases the network's archival burden, a cost borne by a shrinking set of node operators.

Backwards compatibility is the constraint. Solutions like state expiry or EIP-4444 (execution-layer history expiry) require breaking changes that risk fracturing the ecosystem. The governance challenge is imposing a new, sustainable cost model on high-throughput L2s like Arbitrum and Base, whose activity is the primary driver of L1 state growth, without destroying backward compatibility for existing applications.

Evidence: Ethereum's state size grows by ~50 GB/year. Without intervention, running a full archive node becomes prohibitively expensive, centralizing infrastructure around a few providers like Infura and Alchemy. The Verge makes this problem more urgent by solving the adjacent execution scaling issue.

counter-argument
THE NETWORK EFFECT

Steelman: The Inevitability of the EVM Standard

Ethereum's governance prioritizes backward compatibility, cementing the EVM as the dominant smart contract standard through developer and capital inertia.

Backward compatibility is non-negotiable. Ethereum's governance, from core devs to application layer stakeholders, treats breaking changes as an existential risk. This ensures that every contract deployed since 2015 remains executable, creating an unassailable legacy codebase moat.

Developer inertia drives standardization. The EVM's first-mover advantage created a massive talent pool and tooling ecosystem (Hardhat, Foundry). Competing VMs like SVM or Move must offer 10x improvements to justify the switching cost, which most projects cannot afford.

Capital follows the path of least resistance. Major protocols like Uniswap and Aave deploy first on Ethereum L1, then on EVM-compatible L2s (Arbitrum, Optimism). This creates a capital flywheel where liquidity aggregates on EVM chains, reinforcing the standard.

Evidence: Over 90% of all DeFi TVL is on EVM or EVM-equivalent chains. Non-EVM ecosystems like Solana or Aptos must build custom bridges and liquidity bootstraps, a significant execution hurdle that entrenches the EVM's dominance.

risk-analysis
ETHEREUM'S TECHNICAL DEBT

The Bear Case: Where Governance Fails

Ethereum's governance, while decentralized, can prioritize backward compatibility over necessary technical evolution, creating systemic risks and opportunity costs.

01

The EVM as a Prison of Consensus

The Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) is a 256-bit, stack-based relic. Its design, frozen for compatibility, creates massive inefficiencies versus modern VMs like Solana's SVM or Fuel's FuelVM. The governance cost of a breaking change is politically infinite.

  • Gas inefficiency: Simple operations cost 10-100x more than optimized alternatives.
  • Innovation lag: New cryptographic primitives (e.g., BLS signatures) require complex, expensive precompiles instead of native support.
  • Developer lock-in: Forces all L2s and sidechains to inherit its technical debt.
10-100x
Gas Inefficiency
0
Breaking Changes
02

The Social Consensus Bottleneck

Major upgrades like The Merge or Dencun require years of coordination among core devs, client teams, and the community. This process is vulnerable to paralysis or capture by incumbent stakers and application-layer giants like Lido or Uniswap.

  • Speed of failure: Critical bug fixes can be deployed in days; systemic improvements take 3-5 years.
  • Risk of forks: Contentious decisions (e.g., miner extractable value policy) risk chain splits, as seen with Ethereum Classic.
  • Inertia as policy: The safest governance action is often inaction, cementing the status quo.
3-5 years
Upgrade Cycle
High
Coordination Cost
03

L2 Fragmentation by Governance Fiat

Ethereum's roadmap offloads scaling to Layer 2s (Optimism, Arbitrum, zkSync), but governance controls the critical bridges and data availability layers. Decisions on EIP-4844 (blobs) or future DA models pick winners, creating regulatory and technical centralization risks.

  • Centralized sequencers: Most major L2s run single sequencers, a direct result of Ethereum L1 not providing a native sequencing layer.
  • Bridge risk: ~$30B+ is locked in L2 bridges, all dependent on L1's social consensus for security.
  • DA capture: The push for EigenDA and Celestia is a market response to Ethereum governance's slow roll-out of scalable DA.
$30B+
Bridge TVL at Risk
1
Active Sequencer (Typical)
04

The Protocol-JPEG Cartel

The largest Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) drivers are often application-layer entities protecting their business models (e.g., NFT marketplaces fighting royalty enforcement, DeFi protocols like Aave optimizing for MEV). This creates a protocol-jpeg cartel where technical progress serves incumbents.

  • EIP-1559: Driven by user experience, but also permanently benefited major dApps by reducing fee volatility.
  • ERC-4337 (Account Abstraction): Progress is slow, held back by complex integration needs for existing wallet providers.
  • MEV policy: The proposer-builder separation (PBS) rollout is slow, allowing centralized builders like Flashbots to entrench.
Slow
User-Centric EIPs
Fast
Incumbent-Focused EIPs
future-outlook
THE GOVERNANCE DILEMMA

The Fork in the Road: Purge or Perpetuate?

Ethereum's path forward is defined by the tension between radical simplification and preserving its legacy state.

The Purge (Verkle, Statelessness) is inevitable. The current hexary Patricia trie is a bottleneck for node performance and decentralization. Stateless clients and Verkle trees are not optional upgrades; they are prerequisites for scaling validator count and enabling single-slot finality. The purge removes historical baggage.

The Perpetuate (EVM Object Format, EOF) is strategic. Backward compatibility is Ethereum's moat. The EVM Object Format (EOF) upgrades the EVM without breaking existing contracts, a lesson learned from the DAO fork. This preserves the $50B+ DeFi ecosystem built on protocols like Uniswap and Aave.

The conflict is about state, not consensus. Governance debates center on historical data bloat versus developer inertia. Proposals like EIP-4444 (execution layer history expiry) force a choice: prune data or demand perpetual storage from clients like Nethermind and Geth.

Evidence: The L2 Litmus Test. Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism are the primary scaling vector. Their success depends on a lean, verifiable base layer. A bloated L1 makes L2 fraud proofs and validity proofs exponentially more expensive to compute, undermining the entire scaling thesis.

takeaways
ETHEREUM'S SOCIAL CONTRACT

TL;DR for Protocol Architects

Ethereum's governance is a high-stakes game of balancing innovation with the immutability of a $500B+ ecosystem.

01

The Hard Fork is the Ultimate Governance Tool

When consensus fails, the chain splits. This is the nuclear option that enforces social consensus through economic weight.\n- Key Benefit: Resolves irreconcilable disputes (e.g., DAO Fork, Shanghai Unlock).\n- Key Benefit: Creates a clear, on-chain record of stakeholder preference via hash power and staked ETH.

2x
Major Forks
$500B+
Ecosystem Value
02

Backwards Compatibility as a Security Primitive

Ethereum prioritizes client diversity and backwards compatibility over aggressive upgrades to prevent chain splits and protect $40B+ in staked ETH.\n- Key Benefit: Minimizes validator churn and coordination failure risk.\n- Key Benefit: Forces rigorous, multi-client testing (e.g., Shadow Forks) before mainnet deployment.

5+
Active Clients
>12 Mos.
Upgrade Lead Time
03

EIP Process: Innovation Through Bureaucracy

The Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) process is a deliberate speed bump. It filters out poorly defined changes through public scrutiny and client team buy-in.\n- Key Benefit: Prevents network bloat and technical debt (see: EIP-1559's multi-year journey).\n- Key Benefit: Aligns core devs, researchers, and application-layer builders (e.g., ERC-4337 for account abstraction).

99%
EIPs Rejected
~50
Network Upgrades
04

The L2 Escape Hatch

Ethereum's slow, conservative base layer has catalyzed the L2 ecosystem (Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync). This is a feature, not a bug.\n- Key Benefit: Offloads execution risk and experimentation to sovereign rollups.\n- Key Benefit: Maintains L1 as a secure, minimalist settlement and data availability layer.

$20B+
L2 TVL
10-100x
Cheaper Txs
05

Staking Centralization is the New Attack Vector

Lido, Coinbase, and Binance control ~60% of staked ETH. Governance must now account for these mega-entities, creating tension with the protocol's decentralized ethos.\n- Key Benefit: Highlights the critical need for DVT (Distributed Validator Technology) and solo staker incentives.\n- Key Benefit: Makes consensus-layer changes (e.g., penalty curves) a geopolitical balancing act.

~60%
Stake Controlled
3
Dominant Entities
06

The Verge & Purge: Protocol Lifespan Management

Long-term roadmap phases (The Verge, The Purge) are existential governance decisions to permanently prune state and complexity.\n- Key Benefit: Ensures the chain remains usable for decades (e.g., EIP-4444's historical data expiry).\n- Key Benefit: Forces application developers to build with statelessness and decentralization in mind from day one.

90%+
State Reduction
Post-2025
Timeline
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Ethereum's Backward Compatibility Trap: A Governance Analysis | ChainScore Blog