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the-ethereum-roadmap-merge-surge-verge
Blog

Full Danksharding as Ethereum’s Scaling Endpoint

A cynical but optimistic technical breakdown of Full Danksharding, the final piece of Ethereum's Surge. We explain why it's the scaling endgame, how it works, and what it means for rollups like Arbitrum, Optimism, and StarkNet.

introduction
THE ENDGAME

The Scaling Endpoint Isn't a Sidechain

Full Danksharding establishes Ethereum as a unified data availability layer, rendering fragmented sidechain scaling obsolete.

Ethereum's scaling endpoint is a monolithic settlement and data layer, not a constellation of sidechains. Rollups require cheap, secure data availability (DA) to scale, which sidechains cannot provide natively.

Full Danksharding provides canonical DA for all rollups, eliminating the security and composability fragmentation inherent to sidechain models like Polygon PoS or Avalanche subnets. This creates a unified liquidity environment.

The economic model shifts from sidechain sequencer rent extraction to a pure fee market for blobspace. Validators are paid for data attestation, not transaction execution.

Evidence: Post-Dencun, Arbitrum and Optimism L2 fees dropped 90%+ by using Ethereum blobs. This is a prototype for the full Danksharding endpoint where all rollups are first-class citizens on a single base layer.

thesis-statement
THE ENDGAME

Full Danksharding is the Only Scaling That Matters

Full Danksharding is the final architectural upgrade that decouples Ethereum's consensus from data availability, enabling exponential scaling without compromising security.

The scaling bottleneck is data availability. Current rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism are constrained by the cost and speed of posting data to Ethereum's base layer. Full Danksharding solves this by creating a dedicated data availability layer with 128 shards, turning Ethereum into a hyper-scalable data substrate.

It makes L2s indistinguishable from L1. With blob data available for ~16 days, rollups achieve the same security guarantees as the Ethereum mainnet. This eliminates the security vs. scalability trade-off that plagues alternative modular data layers like Celestia or Avail.

The scaling is multiplicative, not additive. Each blob carries ~125 kB of compressed data. With 128 shards, the network's data capacity scales to ~1.3 MB per slot, enabling a theoretical throughput for rollups in the hundreds of thousands of TPS. This dwarfs the capabilities of any monolithic chain.

Evidence: Post-Dencun, proto-danksharding with 3 blobs per block reduced L2 transaction fees by over 90%. Full Danksharding's 128x expansion makes sub-cent L2 transactions the permanent baseline, not a temporary discount.

deep-dive
THE SCALING ENDPOINT

From Proto-Danksharding to Full Danksharding: The Technical Leap

Full Danksharding transforms Ethereum from a single computer into a verifiable data availability network, enabling a 64x throughput increase.

Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844) is a data-only upgrade. It introduces blob-carrying transactions, providing a cheap, temporary data layer for L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism without executing the data. This separates data publishing from execution, the core architectural shift.

Full Danksharding introduces data availability sampling (DAS). Validators verify massive data blobs by sampling small random chunks, enabling secure scaling beyond any single node's capacity. This is the breakthrough that moves Ethereum to a rollup-centric scaling model.

The leap is from consensus on data to consensus on data availability proofs. Proto-Danksharding requires nodes to store all blob data. Full Danksharding requires nodes to only verify that the data is available, decoupling security from storage.

Evidence: Proto-Danksharding targets ~0.375 MB per block. Full Danksharding scales this to ~64 blobs, enabling ~2 MB per slot and supporting throughput for millions of TPS across L2s like zkSync and StarkNet.

ARCHITECTURAL EVOLUTION

The Scaling Trajectory: From Today to Full Danksharding

A comparison of Ethereum's scaling stages, from current rollup-centric execution to the final data availability frontier.

Architectural FeatureToday (Rollup-Centric)Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844)Full Danksharding

Primary Data Layer

Calldata on Mainnet

Blob-Carrying Transactions

Data Availability Sampling (DAS)

Target Throughput (Data)

~80 KB/block

~1.7 MB/block

~1.3 MB/s (16 MB/block)

Blob Count per Block

N/A

6 (initial target)

64 (target)

Cost Model for L2s

Gas Auction (Expensive, Volatile)

Separate Fee Market (Cheap, Stable)

Separate Fee Market (Ultra-Cheap, Stable)

Consensus Layer Security

Full Data Download by All Nodes

Full Data Download by All Nodes

Probabilistic Verification via DAS

Node Hardware Requirement

High (Full Archive Node)

Moderate (Blob Storage ~20 days)

Low (Sample & Sync Committee)

Time to Data Pruning

Never (Full History)

~18 Days (Blob Expiry)

~30 Days (Data Availability Window)

Required Client Changes

None

New Transaction Type & Blob Storage

New P2P Network, DAS, & Proof of Custody

counter-argument
THE INTEGRATION COST

The Modular Counter-Argument: Why Not Just Use Celestia?

Celestia's modular approach introduces systemic fragmentation that Ethereum's integrated scaling path deliberately avoids.

Celestia fragments security and liquidity. Rollups using Celestia for data availability inherit its separate security budget, creating a sovereign execution environment disconnected from Ethereum's economic weight. This forces users and developers to manage multiple trust assumptions across chains like dYmension and Manta Pacific.

Full Danksharding is an integrated scaling endpoint. It scales data availability within Ethereum's consensus layer, preserving a unified security model for all L2s. This eliminates the need for complex, trust-minimized bridges like Hyperlane or LayerZero to connect fragmented ecosystems.

The cost is developer complexity versus systemic risk. Building on a Celestia rollup is simpler today, but you trade that for long-term coordination overhead and bridging risk. Ethereum's path demands more initial protocol work but delivers a cohesive L2 landscape.

Evidence: The L2 ecosystem votes with its code. Major scaling stacks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync are building for Ethereum's data sharding roadmap, not migrating to external DA. Their commitment signals that integrated scaling outweighs modular flexibility for dominant market share.

risk-analysis
THE EXECUTION RISKS

What Could Go Wrong? The Bear Case for Full Danksharding

Full Danksharding is not a guaranteed success. Here are the critical failure modes that could derail Ethereum's scaling endpoint.

01

The Data Availability Bottleneck

The core promise of Danksharding is cheap data. If demand for blob space consistently outpaces supply, the system fails its primary goal.\n- Blob fee markets could become volatile, mirroring today's gas wars.\n- Data sampling complexity may introduce new latency, hurting user experience.\n- Competing L1s like Solana or Monad could maintain a simplicity advantage.

~16 MB/s
Target Bandwidth
100k+
TPS Required
02

Centralization of Builders

Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) is a prerequisite. If PBS fails or centralizes, Danksharding's security model collapses.\n- A dominant builder like Flashbots could censor transactions or extract maximal value.\n- MEV becomes more complex and potentially more extractable across shards.\n- Reliance on a few entities creates systemic risk and regulatory attack surfaces.

>66%
Builder Market Share Risk
$1B+
Stake to Attack
03

The L2 Fragmentation Trap

Danksharding optimizes for rollups, but may entrench a fragmented multi-chain ecosystem it sought to unify.\n- Interoperability between Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync remains a bridge/third-party problem.\n- Liquidity fragmentation persists, negating the "unified settlement" ideal.\n- Users still face a terrible UX of managing dozens of chains and bridges.

50+
Active L2s
$5B+
Bridge TVL at Risk
04

Cryptographic Obsolescence

Danksharding's design hinges on advanced cryptography like KZG commitments and DAS. These are battle-tested but not invincible.\n- A breakthrough in quantum computing or a novel cryptanalysis attack could invalidate the entire security model.\n- The system's complexity introduces more implementation bugs (see: Solana's past outages).\n- Maintenance becomes a high-cost, high-risk endeavor for core developers.

10+ Years
Cryptographic Lifespan?
Zero
Quantum Resistance
05

The Economic Sustainability Question

Ethereum's security budget relies on fee revenue. Danksharding aims to make fees cheap, which could starve the consensus layer.\n- If blob fees are too low, staking yields collapse, threatening Proof-of-Stake security.\n- The protocol must perfectly balance issuance, burns, and fees in a new multi-dimensional market.\n- Failure here could lead to a death spiral or force disruptive monetary policy changes.

-90%
Potential Fee Drop
<3%
Staking APR Risk
06

Adoption & Execution Risk

This is the most complex upgrade in blockchain history. The multi-year, multi-phase rollout is a massive coordination challenge.\n- Delays (like the original Eth2 shift) could cede market share to faster-moving chains.\n- Developer mindshare may drift to simpler, app-chain focused ecosystems like Cosmos or Polkadot.\n- The final, "full" vision may never ship, leaving Ethereum with a half-finished scaling solution.

2027+
Realistic Timeline
5+ Phases
Rollout Complexity
future-outlook
THE ENDGAME

The Post-Danksharding World: A Rollup-Centric Superchain

Full Danksharding transforms Ethereum from a monolithic chain into a scalable data availability substrate, enabling a universe of specialized rollups.

Full Danksharding is the endpoint. It solves scaling by decoupling execution from data availability (DA). Ethereum's consensus layer becomes a high-throughput data marketplace, while rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism handle execution. This creates a rollup-centric architecture where L1 security is a commodity.

The superchain model wins. Dedicated execution layers like OP Stack and Arbitrum Orbit will dominate general-purpose apps. This is more efficient than a monolithic L1 because specialization reduces state bloat and allows for custom gas models and governance.

Data availability is the new bottleneck. Post-Danksharding, the cost of publishing data to Ethereum drops by ~100x. This makes ZK-rollups like zkSync and Starknet economically viable for all use cases, as their proof verification cost becomes negligible relative to cheap DA.

Evidence: The current scaling roadmap is validated. Ethereum's blob throughput targets 1.3 MB per slot, enabling ~100k TPS for rollups. Projects like Celestia and EigenDA are pre-optimizing for this future, proving the demand for scalable, secure DA.

takeaways
ETHEREUM'S SCALING ENDGAME

TL;DR for Busy Builders and Investors

Full Danksharding is the final architectural upgrade to make Ethereum a global settlement layer for rollups, not users.

01

The Problem: Data Availability is the Bottleneck

Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism are constrained by the cost and speed of posting data to L1. This limits throughput and keeps fees volatile.\n- Current DA cost is ~80-90% of a rollup's L1 expense.\n- Throughput is capped at ~80 KB/s (post-EIP-4844).

80-90%
of L1 Cost
80 KB/s
DA Throughput
02

The Solution: A Dedicated Data Layer

Full Danksharding introduces data availability sampling (DAS), allowing nodes to securely confirm data is available without downloading it all.\n- Enables ~1.3 MB/s per slot, a ~16x increase.\n- Reduces rollup costs to near-zero, making <$0.01 transactions viable.

~16x
More Data
<$0.01
Target Tx Cost
03

The Architecture: Proto-Danksharding is the Foundation

EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) deploys blob-carrying transactions as a prerequisite. It's the production testbed.\n- Introduces blobs, cheap temporary data packets.\n- Lays the cryptographic and network groundwork for full DAS.

EIP-4844
Active Prerequisite
Blobs
New Data Type
04

The Implication: Rollups Become True Superchains

With cheap, abundant DA, rollups shift competition to execution and UX. This enables massively parallel execution and viable app-specific chains.\n- zkSync, StarkNet, Scroll can scale independently.\n- Enables high-frequency DeFi and fully on-chain gaming.

Massively
Parallel
App-Specific
Chains Viable
05

The Security Model: Preserving Decentralization

DAS allows light nodes to participate in consensus, strengthening Ethereum's client diversity against data withholding attacks.\n- Requires only ~1-2 MB of data per sample.\n- Maintains security under 1-of-N honest node assumption.

Light Nodes
Secure DA
1-of-N
Honest Model
06

The Timeline & Risk: A Multi-Year Horizon

Full Danksharding is a 2025/26+ event. The main risk is complexity in implementing DAS and the peer-to-peer network.\n- Dependent on client team bandwidth post-Cancun/Deneb.\n- Verkle Trees are a likely prerequisite for state management.

2025/26+
Est. Timeline
High
Impl. Complexity
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Full Danksharding: Ethereum's Final Scaling Endpoint | ChainScore Blog