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the-ethereum-roadmap-merge-surge-verge
Blog

Ethereum Scalability From a Systems View

Ethereum's scalability isn't one upgrade; it's a coordinated systems redesign. This analysis breaks down the Merge, Surge, and Verge as interdependent components of a single, complex throughput engine.

introduction
THE SYSTEMS VIEW

Introduction: The Scalability Trilemma Was a Lie

Ethereum's scalability challenge is a problem of system architecture, not a fundamental trade-off.

The trilemma is a model for monolithic blockchains. It posits a single chain must sacrifice decentralization, security, or scalability. This is a constraint of a specific design, not a law of physics. The solution is architectural disaggregation.

Scalability is a system property, not a chain property. The goal is a performant network, not a fast chain. This shifts the focus from optimizing a single state machine to orchestrating a system of specialized components like Arbitrum, Optimism, and StarkNet.

The bottleneck is state growth. A monolithic chain forces every node to process and store the entire global state. This creates the trilemma. The solution is to split the state across multiple execution environments, a principle proven by Celestia's data availability layer and EigenLayer's restaking security model.

Evidence: Arbitrum processes over 200,000 TPS for token transfers by batching proofs to Ethereum L1. This demonstrates that system-level throughput is decoupled from base-layer consensus speed. The trilemma applies to the settlement layer, not the execution layer.

deep-dive
THE SYSTEMS VIEW

Deconstructing the Roadmap: Merge, Surge, Verge

Ethereum's roadmap is a phased, interdependent systems upgrade that re-architects the network for global scale.

The Merge was a consensus reset. It replaced energy-intensive PoW with PoS, enabling future scalability upgrades by establishing a stable, finalizing base layer for data attestations.

The Surge is a data availability engine. It scales execution via rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism by providing cheap, high-throughput data posting through EIP-4844 proto-danksharding.

The Verge introduces statelessness. It removes the need for nodes to store the entire state, enabling Verkle trees to make solo staking viable at planetary scale.

Evidence: Post-Merge, block finality dropped from ~13 minutes to 12 seconds, a prerequisite for secure cross-rollup bridges like Across and LayerZero.

ETHEREUM SCALABILITY FROM A SYSTEMS VIEW

Systems Trade-Offs: Roadmap Component Analysis

A comparison of core architectural components for scaling Ethereum, analyzing their fundamental trade-offs in decentralization, security, and performance.

System Property / MetricRollups (L2s)Data Availability LayersStatelessness & State Expiry

Primary Scaling Vector

Execution (off-chain compute)

Data Bandwidth & Storage

State Growth & Node Sync

Throughput (TPS) Target

3,000 - 100,000+

Enables 100,000+ L2 TPS

Not a direct throughput gain

Trust Assumption

1+ Honest Sequencer

2/3 Honest Committee (Celestia) or 1+ Honest Prover (EigenDA)

Cryptographic Proofs (Verkle, SNARKs)

Data Posting Cost to L1

$0.01 - $0.25 per tx (via calldata or blobs)

$0.001 - $0.01 per tx (optimized)

N/A

Node Hardware Requirement

Light (sequencer) to Full (prover)

Light (sampling) to Full (DA consensus)

Constant (Verkle proofs ~50KB)

Time to Finality on L1

12 min - 1 hr (optimistic) / ~20 min (ZK)

~12 min (Ethereum blobs) / ~1 min (external DA)

N/A

Solves State Bloat

Partially (state localized to L2)

Yes (historical data pruning)

Yes (active state management)

Key Ecosystem Examples

Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, Starknet

Ethereum Danksharding, Celestia, EigenDA, Avail

Verkle Trees, EIP-4444, Portal Network

counter-argument
THE SYSTEMS TRADEOFF

The Monolithic Counter-Argument: Are We Just Building a Worse Solana?

The modular stack's complexity risks re-creating a slower, more expensive version of a monolithic chain.

Modularity introduces systemic latency. The data availability layer, execution environment, and settlement layer operate as separate networks. Each hop adds finality delay, making cross-domain composability slower than Solana's single-state machine.

The cost of security is fragmentation. Users pay for L1 settlement gas and sequencer fees, creating a multi-fee market problem. This often exceeds the cost of a single transaction on a high-throughput monolithic chain like Sui or Aptos.

Developer experience regresses. Building a cross-rollup application requires managing bridges like Across and Stargate, which adds failure points. Solana's single global state eliminates this complexity entirely for developers.

Evidence: A simple asset swap involving Arbitrum, Base, and Ethereum mainnet can take 20+ minutes and cost over $10 in fees. The same action on Solana finalizes in seconds for fractions of a cent.

takeaways
SYSTEMS THINKING

Architectural Takeaways for Builders

Scaling Ethereum isn't just about TPS; it's about re-architecting the trust, data, and execution stack.

01

The Data Availability Bottleneck is the New Security Frontier

Execution is cheap; consensus on data is expensive. The core scaling constraint has shifted from block gas limits to data availability (DA).

  • Key Benefit 1: Off-chain DA layers like EigenDA and Celestia reduce L2 posting costs by ~90% vs. calldata.
  • Key Benefit 2: Enables high-throughput, sovereign rollups (e.g., Fuel, dYmension) to scale independently of Ethereum's data capacity.
~90%
Cost Reduced
10-100x
Data Bandwidth
02

Modularity Wins, But Introduces New Trust Assumptions

Monolithic chains (Solana) optimize for synchronous performance; modular stacks (Ethereum + L2s + DA) optimize for asynchronous, verifiable trust.

  • Key Benefit 1: Specialization allows Arbitrum for gaming, zkSync for payments, Base for social—each with optimized VMs.
  • Key Benefit 2: Creates a multi-billion dollar marketplace for sequencers, provers, and DA providers, but forces builders to audit new trust graphs.
$50B+
Modular TVL
7+
Major L2s
03

Intent-Centric Design is the Next UX Paradigm

Users don't want to sign 10 transactions across 5 chains. They want outcomes. Abstracting execution to a solver network is the logical endpoint of modular scaling.

  • Key Benefit 1: Protocols like UniswapX and CowSwap already route orders across L2s and sidechains for optimal price, hiding complexity.
  • Key Benefit 2: Drives adoption by making cross-chain interactions feel like a single-chain experience, with Across and LayerZero as critical infrastructure.
~500ms
User Perception
1000x
Fewer Signatures
04

Shared Sequencers are the Next L2 Battleground

Today, each rollup runs its own sequencer, creating fragmentation and MEV leakage. Shared sequencer networks (Espresso, Astria) will commoditize block production.

  • Key Benefit 1: Enables atomic cross-rollup composability, unlocking complex DeFi strategies across Optimism's Superchain or Arbitrum Orbit.
  • Key Benefit 2: Reduces centralization risk and creates a liquid market for block space, pushing costs toward marginal execution.
~0s
Cross-L2 Latency
-30%
MEV Extracted
05

Verification is the Only Non-Negotiable On-Chain Load

Everything can be off-chain (execution, data, settlement) except the cryptographic proof of correctness. Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) are the ultimate compression tool.

  • Key Benefit 1: ZK-rollups (zkSync, Starknet, Scroll) provide Ethereum-level security with ~10-100x cheaper finality vs. optimistic rollups.
  • Key Benefit 2: Enables privacy-preserving scaling (Aztec) and verifiable off-chain compute, making the base layer a pure court of appeal.
~10 min
Finality Time
1 MB
Proof Size
06

The Endgame is a Unified Liquidity Layer, Not a Unified Chain

The future isn't one chain to rule them all. It's a constellation of specialized execution environments with seamless, trust-minimized asset movement.

  • Key Benefit 1: Protocols like Chainlink CCIP and Wormhole abstract bridging into a primitive, letting dApps deploy on the optimal chain for their use case.
  • Key Benefit 2: Ethereum L1 becomes the anchor of trust and liquidity, settling disputes and hosting canonical asset registries, while activity explodes on L2s and L3s.
$100B+
Bridged Value
50+
Connected Chains
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