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the-appchain-thesis-cosmos-and-polkadot
Blog

The Future of Appchain Security Budgets: Who Really Pays?

The appchain thesis promises sovereignty but obscures a critical cost: security. This analysis deconstructs the economic burden, revealing whether users, token holders, or speculative capital ultimately funds the validator set in Cosmos and Polkadot.

introduction
THE BUDGET CRISIS

Introduction

Appchain security is a public good funded by a shrinking pool of validators, creating a systemic risk.

Appchain security budgets are unsustainable. Every new rollup or L2 fragments validator revenue, diluting the economic security of the underlying chain like Ethereum or Cosmos.

The user does not directly pay for security. Transaction fees fund sequencer/prover profits and DA, while the security budget relies on inflationary token emissions or speculative staking yields.

This creates a free-rider problem. Protocols like dYdX (moving from StarkEx to Cosmos) and Avalanche Subnets externalize their security costs onto a shared validator set, depressing returns for all.

Evidence: Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap assumes L2s will eventually pay the L1 for security via blob fees and enshrined sequencing, a direct tax on appchain activity.

thesis-statement
THE SECURITY BUDGET CRISIS

The Core Argument

Appchain security is a mispriced public good, shifting costs onto shared settlement layers and creating systemic risk.

Appchains externalize security costs. Rollups and L2s like Arbitrum and Base pay negligible fees to Ethereum for data availability, treating its consensus as a subsidized public good. This creates a classic tragedy of the commons where security demand grows while revenue for the underlying chain stagnates.

The security budget is the validator's yield. A chain's security is the product of its native token's market cap and its staking yield. Appchains with negligible token value or yield, like most L2s, have a near-zero security budget and must rent security from another chain.

Shared sequencers are a stopgap, not a solution. Projects like Espresso Systems and Astria offer cheaper blockspace but merely shift the security cost to their own validator set, which faces the same budget problem at a different layer. This does not solve the fundamental revenue-to-security loop.

Evidence: Ethereum's total annualized security spend (issuance + fees) is ~$10B. The top five L2s generate ~$200M in annualized fee revenue for Ethereum, a 20:1 subsidy ratio. This model is unsustainable at scale.

market-context
THE BUDGET CRISIS

The Current State of Play

Appchain security budgets are unsustainable, creating a direct conflict between user experience and validator incentives.

The security budget is broken. Appchains like dYdX and Arbitrum Nova rely on a shared validator set (e.g., Cosmos Hub, Ethereum) for finality. This creates a fee market for security where the appchain must outbid other chains for validator attention, directly linking high user activity to unsustainable costs.

Users currently pay the bill. Every transaction fee on an appchain is a security tax paid to validators. This model breaks down during low-usage periods, as seen with Cosmos zones that become vulnerable when fees drop, forcing protocols to subsidize security from their treasury.

The validator incentive is misaligned. Validators secure the chain with the highest fee yield, not the most valuable state. This creates a race to the bottom where appchains must either inflate their token or accept weaker security, a problem starkly visible in the fragmented Cosmos ecosystem.

Evidence: The dYdX v4 migration from StarkEx to a Cosmos appchain explicitly cited sovereignty over fee markets as a primary driver, a direct response to the budget problem. Similarly, Arbitrum's ongoing sequencer decentralization is a multi-year, capital-intensive effort to manage this cost.

THE FUTURE OF SECURITY BUDGETS

Appchain Security Model Comparison: The Cost Breakdown

A direct comparison of who bears the capital and operational costs for securing different appchain architectures, from validators to end-users.

Security Cost ComponentSovereign Rollup (e.g., Celestia DA)Shared Sequencer (e.g., Espresso, Astria)Validium (e.g., StarkEx, zkPorter)Alt-L1 Appchain (e.g., Polygon Supernet, Avalanche Subnet)

Validator/Prover Bond (Capital Cost)

Sovereign chain validators

Sequencer set + underlying L1 validators

Data Availability Committee (DAC) or Validium operators

Appchain-specific validator set

Sequencer/Block Producer Capex

Appchain team

Shared cost across all chains using the service

Appchain team (if running own sequencer)

Appchain team

Data Availability (DA) Fee Payer

Appchain treasury (pays to DA layer)

Bundled into shared sequencer fee

Users (per tx, paid to DAC or DA layer)

Bundled into appchain's validator rewards

Finality & L1 Settlement Cost

Users (bridge tx to L1 for asset movement)

Users (shared sequencer batch tx to L1)

Users (verification proof + state update to L1)

N/A (finality is internal)

Censorship Resistance Slashing

Upfront Setup Cost (Dev Time)

~3-6 months (light client + tooling)

~1-2 months (SDK integration)

~1-3 months (SDK + DAC coordination)

~2-4 months (validator recruitment + config)

Primary Security Failure Point

DA layer liveness

Shared sequencer set liveness

Data Availability Committee honesty

Appchain validator set honesty (>33%)

End-User Visible Fee

L2 gas + DA fee + L1 bridge fee

L2 gas + shared sequencer fee

L2 gas + DAC/DA fee

Appchain-native gas only

deep-dive
THE ECONOMIC REALITY

The Three Payer Archetypes: Users, Holders, and Greater Fools

Appchain security budgets are funded by one of three distinct economic models, each with a different sustainability profile.

User-Pays is the only sustainable model. Users directly fund security via transaction fees, creating a direct value-for-security loop. This is the model of Ethereum L1 and mature L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism. The security budget scales with usage, aligning incentives perfectly.

Holder-Pays is a subsidy model. Token holders fund security via inflation or treasury grants, subsidizing user costs to bootstrap growth. This is the Avalanche Subnet and Cosmos appchain playbook. This creates a misalignment where holders bear costs for user benefits, leading to eventual model transition.

Greater-Fool-Pays is a Ponzi. Security is funded by speculative token appreciation, relying on new capital to pay existing validators. This is the fate of low-utility chains with high inflationary staking rewards. The model collapses when token price growth stalls, as seen in the 2022-2023 alt-L1 winter.

Evidence: Ethereum's $2B+ annual security spend is directly paid by users. In contrast, a typical Cosmos appchain with $10M TVL but $50M FDV has holders paying 20%+ APY inflation—a 5x multiple of value secured.

case-study
THE FUTURE OF APPCHAIN SECURITY

Case Studies: Security Budgets in the Wild

Examining how leading protocols are solving the fundamental economic challenge of securing sovereign execution layers.

01

The Shared Security Dilemma

Appchains want sovereignty but can't afford their own validator set. Renting security from a larger chain (e.g., Cosmos Hub, Polkadot) creates a misaligned economic model where the appchain's fees don't flow to its protectors.

  • Problem: Security budget is an externalized cost, creating long-term sustainability risk.
  • Example: A Cosmos consumer chain's $1M in annual fees does not reward the Hub's $2B+ staked ATOM securing it.
$0
Fee Flow to Securers
>100
Appchains Needing Security
02

Celestia's Data-Availability-as-a-Service

Decouples execution security from data availability security. Rollups pay for blobspace in TIA or other tokens, creating a direct, usage-based security budget for the data layer.

  • Solution: Modular security budgets. Execution layers (Rollups) pay for what they use.
  • Economic Model: ~$0.001 per KB for data publishing, creating a predictable cost center tied directly to chain activity.
~$0.001
Cost per KB
50+
Active Rollups
03

EigenLayer's Restaking Ponzi

Recruits Ethereum's $20B+ staked ETH to secure new systems (AVSs). Appchains pay fees to operators, creating a security budget sourced from Ethereum's yield.

  • Innovation: Monetizes Ethereum's latent trust, but concentrates systemic risk.
  • Budget Source: Appchain fees fund operator rewards, creating a circular economy backed by slashing risk.
$20B+
Restaked TVL
200+
AVSs Secured
04

Polygon CDK's Configurable Security

Allows chains to choose a security model: Ethereum for high-value, a shared Polygon chain for cost-efficiency, or their own validator set. The security budget is a direct, configurable line item.

  • Solution: Tiered security pricing. Pay for Ethereum-grade finality or settle for a cheaper, federated checkpoint.
  • Trade-off: Enables chains to align security costs with their application's risk profile and revenue.
3 Tiers
Security Models
-90%
Cost vs. Solo Chain
05

dYdX Chain's Fee Capture Model

The v4 appchain directs all protocol fees (trading fees) to its Cosmos-based validator set. This aligns security spend with protocol revenue, creating a sustainable budget.

  • Case Study: $50M+ in annualized fees directly fund staking rewards for its ~$1B staked DYDX.
  • Result: Validators are economically incentivized by the app's success, not an external token.
$50M+
Annual Fee Revenue
100%
Fee Capture
06

The Endgame: Sovereign Rollups & L2s

Networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync generate massive fee revenue but currently share minimal value with Ethereum L1. The future conflict is over who captures the security budget.

  • Tension: $3B+ in annualized L2 fees vs. minimal direct payments to Ethereum validators.
  • Future: Protocol guilds, L1 yield sharing, or sovereign forks will determine if security budgets remain internalized or are shared upstream.
$3B+
L2 Annual Fees
<5%
Paid to L1
counter-argument
THE REAL COST

Counter-Argument: Security as a Marketing Expense

Appchain security budgets are not a technical liability but a core go-to-market cost, directly funding user acquisition and trust.

Security is user acquisition cost. The validator budget for a new appchain directly purchases the trust required to attract its first users and liquidity. This is identical to a traditional SaaS company's sales and marketing budget.

Shared security fails for sovereignty. Protocols like EigenLayer and Babylon offer pooled security, but they trade customizability for consensus. An appchain requiring specific slashing conditions or fast finality cannot outsource its core state machine.

The budget scales with success. A successful appchain's security spend correlates with TVL and revenue, not raw transaction count. This aligns validator incentives with protocol growth, creating a virtuous economic cycle.

Evidence: dYdX migrated to its own chain, accepting higher security costs to capture full MEV revenue and control its upgrade path—a clear business decision where security spend enabled superior unit economics.

risk-analysis
THE ECONOMICS OF SECURITY

Critical Risks: When the Security Budget Breaks

Appchain security is a public good funded by a finite budget; these models explore what happens when that budget is insufficient or misaligned.

01

The Tragedy of the Validator Commons

Validators secure the chain for fees, but appchain activity is cyclical. In a bear market, transaction fees collapse, leaving the chain secured by a diminishing security budget. This creates a death spiral: lower security reduces user trust, further decreasing activity and fees.

  • Risk: Security becomes pro-cyclical, weakest when needed most.
  • Reality: A chain with $1M daily fees can see its security budget drop 80%+ in a downturn.
  • Precedent: Early Cosmos zones faced this before interchain security.
80%+
Fee Collapse
Pro-Cyclical
Security Risk
02

The Sovereign Subsidy: A Finite Runway

Many appchains launch with a treasury grant or token inflation to pay validators, creating an artificial security budget. This is a finite subsidy that must transition to organic fees before it runs out. Failure to achieve sustainable fee revenue results in a chain that is fundamentally insolvent.

  • Problem: Teams mistake subsidy for sustainable economic design.
  • Metric: Runway measured in months, not years at high inflation rates.
  • Example: Avalanche subnets and Polygon Supernets grapple with this bootstrap challenge.
Finite
Runway
Token Inflation
Hidden Cost
03

Interchain Security as a Liquidity Problem

Rented security from a parent chain (e.g., Cosmos ICS, Polygon CDK, EigenLayer AVS) turns security into a recurring liquidity expense. The appchain must generate enough economic activity to cover this hard-currency cost. If the app's native token depreciates against the staking asset, the real cost of security skyrockets.

  • Dynamic: Security cost is pegged to the value of ATOM, MATIC, or ETH.
  • Failure Mode: App token depegs, making security payments untenable.
  • Dependency: Introduces liquidity and peg risk to core security assumption.
Recurring
Liquidity Cost
Peg Risk
Volatility
04

The MEV Extraction Arms Race

In a fee-based model, validators are incentivized to maximize extractable value (MEV). For an appchain, this creates a fundamental conflict: validator profit maximization can directly harm application users through front-running and bad execution. The security budget becomes a tax on user experience.

  • Conflict: Validator incentives ≠ User incentives.
  • Result: DEXs and lending markets on appchains are prime MEV targets.
  • Solution Space: Requires embedded SUAVE-like builders or enforced fair ordering.
Incentive
Misalignment
User Tax
Hidden Cost
05

Concentrated Stake & Governance Capture

A small security budget attracts fewer validators, leading to high stake concentration. A top-5 validator set controlling 60%+ stake is common in young ecosystems. This creates centralization risks and makes the chain vulnerable to governance capture, where validators vote in their own economic interest over the network's health.

  • Metric: Gini coefficient for stake often exceeds 0.8 in early stages.
  • Outcome: Security is Byzantine fault tolerant but not decentralization fault tolerant.
  • Case Study: Early Binance Smart Chain validator set faced these critiques.
60%+
Stake Control
>0.8
Gini Coefficient
06

The Shared Sequencer Illusion

Shared sequencer networks (e.g., Espresso, Astria) promise cheaper, coordinated security. However, they create a new meta-layer security budget problem. If the shared sequencer set is underpaid or corrupt, it can censor or reorder transactions across all connected rollups, creating a systemic single point of failure.

  • Risk: Security failure propagates across all connected chains.
  • Economic Challenge: Sequencer fees must be split, potentially diluting revenue per chain.
  • Dilemma: Trading sovereign security budget for systemic contagion risk.
Systemic
Contagion Risk
Meta-Layer
Budget Problem
future-outlook
THE SECURITY BUDGET

The Modular Future: Outsourcing the Security Problem

Appchains shift security costs from token inflation to user transaction fees, creating a direct link between usage and sustainability.

Security is a paid service. Monolithic chains like Ethereum and Solana fund security via block rewards, a tax on token holders. Modular appchains on Celestia or EigenDA purchase security as a commodity, paying for data availability and settling proofs on a parent chain.

The user pays, eventually. Appchain security budgets are funded by transaction fees, not token dilution. This creates a direct fee-revenue feedback loop: high usage funds strong security, low usage risks liveness failures, as seen in early Cosmos zones.

Shared security is a spectrum. Opt-in systems like EigenLayer and Babylon offer a middle ground, allowing chains to lease Ethereum's economic security without full settlement overhead, competing with solo-staking yields for capital.

Evidence: An appchain on Arbitrum Orbit pays Ethereum for L1 batch posting and proof verification fees; its security budget scales directly with its gas revenue, unlike Avalanche's subnets which maintain independent validator sets.

takeaways
SECURITY BUDGETS

Key Takeaways for Builders and Investors

The era of monolithic chain security subsidies is ending. Appchains must now justify their own economic security, creating new models and risks.

01

The Shared Security Illusion

Relying on a parent chain's validators (e.g., Cosmos Hub, Polkadot Relay Chain) does not create a free security budget. The appchain must still pay for its own block space and compete for validator attention.\n- Security is a cost center, not a byproduct.\n- Validator revenue must exceed opportunity cost of validating elsewhere.\n- Low-fee chains become low-priority targets for validators, creating liveness risks.

>50%
Validator Drop-Off Risk
0$
Free Security
02

The Sovereign Validator Set Trap

Rolling your own validator set (e.g., Avalanche Subnets, Polygon Supernets) requires bootstrapping billions in staked value to resist attacks. This capital is expensive and illiquid.\n- Attacker cost is the market cap of your token, not TVL.\n- High inflation to pay stakers dilutes token holders.\n- Creates a circular dependency: security needs token value, value needs security.

$1B+
Stake Needed for Safety
5-20%
Annual Inflation
03

Modular Security as a Service

The winning model separates execution from consensus and data availability. Pay for security via Ethereum rollup fees (to L1) and restaking services like EigenLayer or Babylon.\n- Rent security from established, high-value networks.\n- Capital efficiency: Security budget scales with usage, not speculative token stakes.\n- Enables fast innovation on execution layer without validator bootstrapping.

10-100x
Capital Efficiency
Ethereum
Security Backstop
04

The Interop Tax is Real

Every cross-chain message via an IBC connection or a bridge like LayerZero or Axelar introduces a new attack vector. The security budget must cover the cost of corrupting relayers or light clients.\n- Security is multiplicative: Weakest link in the chain defines safety.\n- Monitoring and slashing for relayers becomes a core cost.\n- Forces a trade-off between sovereignty and secure connectivity.

$200M+
Bridge Hack (Avg)
N^2
Connection Complexity
05

Fee Markets Will Dictate Survival

Long-term, only appchains with sustainable fee revenue can afford robust security. This means real user transactions, not token incentives. Models to watch: Celestia's blobspace pricing, Ethereum's EIP-4844, and app-specific MEV capture.\n- Burn mechanisms (like EIP-1559) can create deflationary pressure but reduce validator payouts.\n- Priority fees must be high enough to make block production profitable.\n- The endgame is utility-backed security, not speculation-backed.

$0.01+
Min Fee/Tx for Safety
Utility
Ultimate Backing
06

Investor Diligence: The New Checklist

VCs must audit security budgets, not just tokenomics. Key questions:\n- What is the exact cost to attack the chain? Is it > 10x potential profit?\n- Who are the validators? Are they aligned or mercenary capital?\n- What is the runway for security subsidies before fee sustainability?\n- How are cross-chain risks quantified and insured?

10x
Attack Cost Multiplier
24-36 mo.
Runway Scrutiny
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