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mev-the-hidden-tax-of-crypto
Blog

The Future of MEV Capture: Will It Move to Layer 2?

The monolithic MEV market on Ethereum is fracturing. We analyze the technical and economic forces driving MEV to fragment into sovereign, domain-specific markets on Layer 2s, rollups, and appchains, reshaping builder and validator incentives.

introduction
THE SHIFT

Introduction

MEV capture is migrating from Ethereum's execution layer to a competitive, modular landscape dominated by Layer 2s and specialized infrastructure.

MEV is moving to L2s. The primary value extraction point for maximal extractable value shifts where execution happens. With Arbitrum and Optimism processing more transactions than Ethereum L1, the economic gravity of MEV follows.

L2s are not monolithic. Their sequencer design dictates MEV flow. A centralized sequencer like Arbitrum's creates a single capture point, while decentralized sequencers like Espresso Systems or shared sequencing layers like Astria reintroduce a competitive market.

The future is intent-based. Users will express desired outcomes via intents, routing through solvers on UniswapX or CowSwap. This moves MEV capture from block builders to a solver network, abstracting complexity from the user.

Evidence: Optimism's retroactive airdrops for MEV mitigations and Arbitrum's sequencer revenue exceeding $10M monthly prove L2s are the new economic frontier for value extraction.

thesis-statement
THE FUTURE OF VALUE FLOW

The Core Thesis: MEV Follows Liquidity and Sovereignty

MEV extraction will migrate to the layers where users and assets are, driven by economic gravity rather than technical primacy.

MEV migrates to liquidity. The value of a block is the sum of its transactions. As users and assets move to Layer 2s like Arbitrum and Optimism, the most valuable transactions and their associated MEV follow. The base layer becomes a settlement and security substrate.

Sovereignty dictates capture. An L2's control over its sequencer and block-building process determines who captures MEV. Centralized sequencers (e.g., early Optimism) internalize value, while decentralized, permissionless sequencer sets (e.g., Espresso Systems, Astria) create a competitive market for builders like Flashbots SUAVE.

The bridge is the bottleneck. Cross-domain MEV between L1 and L2 is a massive, under-exploited opportunity. Protocols like Across and LayerZero that facilitate fast, intent-based asset transfers will become primary vectors for this new MEV class, competing with native L2 searchers.

Evidence: Arbitrum and Optimism now consistently process more daily transactions than Ethereum L1. Their combined DeFi TVL often surpasses $10B, creating a denser, more lucrative transaction mesh for searchers to exploit than many standalone L1s.

FUTURE OF MEV CAPTURE

The Fragmentation Map: MEV Market Characteristics

Comparative analysis of MEV market structures across Ethereum L1 and emerging L2s, evaluating where value capture will concentrate.

Key CharacteristicEthereum L1 (Status Quo)Optimistic Rollup L2 (e.g., Optimism, Arbitrum)ZK-Rollup L2 (e.g., zkSync, Starknet)App-Specific L2/Sovereign Rollup (e.g., dYdX, Fuel)

Dominant MEV Type

Arbitrage & Liquidations (>80%)

Cross-domain arbitrage (L1->L2)

Same-chain arbitrage & liquidations

Order flow auction (OFA) & intent-based

Searcher Profit Pool (Annual Est.)

$500M - $1B

$50M - $200M

$10M - $100M (growing)

Niche; protocol-captured

Block Builder/Sequencer Centralization

High (3-5 dominant builders)

Very High (Single sequencer)

Very High (Single sequencer)

Configurable (can be decentralized)

Time to Finality for MEV

12 seconds (1 Ethereum block)

~1 week (challenge period) or ~1 hour (fast lane)

~1 hour (ZK-proof generation)

< 1 second (single-slot finality possible)

Native MEV Infrastructure

Flashbots SUAVE, Builder APIs, PBS

Centralized sequencer mempool

Centralized sequencer mempool

Integrated order flow auction (OFA)

Cross-Domain MEV Opportunity

N/A (Source chain)

High (to/from L1 & other L2s via bridges)

Medium (delayed by proof finality)

Low (focused on internal execution)

User MEV Extraction (e.g., CowSwap)

Possible via DEX aggregators

Limited by sequencer control

Limited by sequencer control

Designed for (e.g., intent-based AMM)

Long-term Value Accrual Layer

Consensus & Security (Ethereum)

Execution & Transaction Ordering

Execution & Privacy/Scale

Application Logic & Vertical Integration

deep-dive
THE MEV SHIFT

Deep Dive: The Technical Drivers of Fragmentation

MEV capture is migrating to Layer 2s, driven by lower latency, specialized sequencers, and the commoditization of block space.

MEV migrates to L2s because their centralized sequencers create a predictable, low-latency environment for searchers. This is the primary technical driver. On Ethereum, proposer-builder separation (PBS) distributes MEV, but an L2 sequencer is a single, known entity that can be optimized for extraction.

Specialized sequencer infrastructure like Espresso Systems and Astria is the counterpoint to shared sequencing. These protocols decouple execution from ordering, creating a competitive market for block building on L2s. This fragments MEV capture from a single chain to multiple competing sequencing layers.

Commoditized L1 block space pushes complex MEV to L2s. As Ethereum's base layer focuses on security and data availability via danksharding, its blockspace becomes a generic commodity. The profitable, latency-sensitive arbitrage and liquidation logic moves to where execution is cheap and fast—like Arbitrum or Optimism.

Evidence: Flashbots' SUAVE is explicitly designed for a multi-chain world, aiming to become the mempool and block builder for L2s and alternative L1s. This acknowledges that the future MEV battlefield is not Ethereum L1.

protocol-spotlight
THE L2 MEV FRONTIER

Protocol Spotlight: The New MEV Arena Champions

As transaction execution shifts to Layer 2s, the multi-billion dollar MEV game is being rewritten by new infrastructure.

01

The Problem: Fragmented, Opaque L2 MEV

Each L2 rollup is a separate, isolated execution environment with its own sequencer, mempool, and fee market. This fragments MEV opportunities and creates information asymmetry between L1 and L2 searchers. The dominant model of centralized sequencing on many L2s creates a single, trusted point of capture.

20+
Rollup Arenas
~90%
Sequencer Centralization
02

The Solution: Shared Sequencing & Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS)

Protocols like Espresso Systems and Astria are building decentralized, shared sequencer networks. This enables cross-rollup MEV bundling and introduces PBS to L2s, separating block building from proposing. The result is competitive bidding for block space and MEV revenue redistribution back to the rollup/community.

$100M+
TVL in Testnets
Sub-Second
Finality Target
03

The Enforcer: SUAVE - The Universal MEV Chain

Flashbots' SUAVE is a specialized L1 designed to be the preference layer for all blockchains. It centralizes intent expression and block building in a neutral, decentralized arena. By routing user transactions through SUAVE, L2s can outsource MEV extraction and gain access to optimal cross-domain execution via its mempool.

All Chains
Target Scope
0
Native Apps
04

The New Searcher: Intents & Solving Networks

The future L2 searcher doesn't scan mempools; they solve for user intents. Platforms like UniswapX, CowSwap, and Across aggregate user flow and auction off fulfillment. Solvers compete on execution quality, creating a MEV-aware order flow auction (OFA) that captures value before it hits the public sequencer.

10-100x
More User Flow
~50 bps
Avg. Improvement
05

The Risk: MEV Centralization Reborn

L2 MEV infrastructure risks creating new centralization vectors. A dominant shared sequencer or solver network becomes a universal censor. If PBS is implemented poorly, builders can form cartels. The winning model must have credible neutrality and permissionless participation at the builder level to avoid L1's mistakes.

1-3
Dominant Builders
High
Censorship Risk
06

The Champion's Edge: Integrated Stack Protocols

The ultimate winners will be L2s that natively integrate MEV capture into their protocol design. Think Fuel Network with its parallel execution and native OFA, or a rollup using Espresso sequencing with a built-in SUAVE connection. The protocol-owned MEV sink becomes a sustainable revenue stream and a core competitive moat.

Protocol-Owned
Revenue Model
End-to-End
Control
counter-argument
THE LIQUIDITY ANCHOR

Counter-Argument: The Case for Ethereum-Centric MEV

Ethereum's settlement layer will remain the primary venue for high-value MEV extraction due to its unparalleled liquidity and security.

Ethereum is the liquidity sink. The vast majority of high-value assets and largest DEX pools like Uniswap V3 settle on L1. Cross-chain atomic arbitrage via protocols like Across and LayerZero funnels value back to Ethereum for final settlement, concentrating the most profitable MEV.

L2s are execution layers, not settlement hubs. Rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism batch transactions for efficiency but derive finality from Ethereum. This architectural reality makes L1 the canonical venue for arbitrage between L2 state roots and for liquidating large, cross-domain positions.

Secure sequencing has a cost. While L2s experiment with shared sequencers and decentralized sequencing, Ethereum's validator set provides unmatched economic security for transaction ordering. For billion-dollar MEV opportunities, this security premium is non-negotiable, anchoring the activity to L1.

Evidence: Over 90% of DeFi TVL remains on Ethereum L1. The proposer-builder separation (PBS) roadmap with MEV-Boost and mev-geth institutionalizes high-stakes MEV extraction at the core protocol level, a sophistication L2s cannot yet match.

risk-analysis
MEV LAYER 2 MIGRATION

Risk Analysis: The Fragmented Future is Messy

The migration of MEV capture to Layer 2s is inevitable but creates a complex, multi-dimensional risk landscape for builders and users.

01

The Problem: Fragmented Liquidity, Amplified Slippage

MEV searchers arbitrage price differences across L2s, but fragmented liquidity on each chain increases slippage costs for users. This creates a negative feedback loop where high-value trades are extracted, leaving worse prices for everyone else.\n- Slippage can be 2-5x higher on nascent L2 DEXs versus Ethereum mainnet.\n- Cross-chain arbitrage bots (via LayerZero, Axelar) exacerbate this by moving value in large, predatory blocks.

2-5x
Slippage
Fragmented
Liquidity
02

The Solution: Centralized Sequencing as a Single Point of Failure

Most L2s use a single sequencer to order transactions, creating a centralized MEV capture monopoly. This sequencer can front-run, censor, and extract maximum value with zero competition, undermining L2 decentralization claims.\n- Sequencer profits are opaque and not shared with the L2 community.\n- Creates systemic risk; a compromised or malicious sequencer can halt the chain or steal funds.

1
Sequencer
Opaque
Profits
03

The Problem: Inconsistent PBS Adoption Breeds Inefficiency

Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) is the gold standard for fair MEV distribution, but its adoption across L2s is inconsistent and often proprietary. This leads to inefficient markets and rent-seeking as each chain reinvents the wheel.\n- Builders must develop custom integration for each L2's system.\n- Users face varying levels of protection and cost across chains, harming UX.

Fragmented
Standards
Rent-Seeking
Risk
04

The Solution: Shared Sequencing & Cross-Chain MEV Markets

Projects like Astria, Espresso, and Radius are building shared sequencing layers that enable atomic cross-rollup bundles. This allows MEV to be captured and redistributed more efficiently across the entire L2 ecosystem.\n- Enables cross-domain arbitrage as a native primitive.\n- Can reintroduce competitive builder markets at the L2 level, reducing sequencer monopoly power.

Atomic
Cross-Rollup
Shared
Market
05

The Problem: Intents Shift Complexity, Not Risk

Intent-based architectures (e.g., UniswapX, CowSwap) push MEV risk from users to solvers. On L2s, this concentrates risk in a few solver entities that must manage liquidity and execution across fragmented chains. Solver failure means total transaction failure.\n- Increases systemic reliance on a small set of sophisticated actors.\n- Cross-chain intents via Across or Chainlink CCIP add additional oracle and bridge risk layers.

Concentrated
Solver Risk
Added
Layers
06

The Solution: Verifiable Sequencing & MEV Redistribution

The endgame is verifiable, decentralized sequencing with enforced MEV redistribution. L2s must implement cryptographically proven fair ordering (e.g., based on VDFs) and direct a portion of extracted value back to users via gas subsidies or protocol treasury.\n- Turns MEV from a tax into a public good funding mechanism.\n- Aligns sequencer incentives with long-term chain health and user adoption.

Verifiable
Ordering
Public Good
Funding
future-outlook
THE LAYER 2 SHIFT

Future Outlook: The MEV Archipelago (2025-2026)

MEV capture will migrate to Layer 2s, creating a fragmented but more efficient ecosystem of specialized value extraction.

MEV migrates to L2s because execution becomes cheaper and faster. The economic gravity of high-volume, low-fee environments like Arbitrum and Base pulls sophisticated bots away from congested Ethereum mainnet.

Specialized MEV markets emerge per L2. An optimistic rollup like Arbitrum enables longer-range arbitrage, while a ZK-rollup like zkSync creates new proving-time opportunities, fragmenting the monolithic MEV landscape.

Cross-domain MEV becomes dominant. Protocols like Across and LayerZero will be arbitraged, with intent-based solvers from UniswapX and CowSwap competing to capture value across the archipelago's liquidity islands.

Evidence: L2s now dominate DEX volume. Arbitrum and Base consistently process more swaps than Ethereum, creating a larger, cheaper playground for searchers. The MEV is following the users.

takeaways
THE FUTURE OF MEV CAPTURE

Key Takeaways

MEV is not scaling with L1; it's fragmenting and evolving. The battleground for value extraction is shifting to Layer 2s and their sequencers.

01

The Problem: L2 Sequencers Are the New MEV Cartels

Centralized sequencers on major L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism have a monopoly on transaction ordering. They can extract 100% of on-chain MEV without competition, creating a ~$100M+ annual revenue stream that currently bypasses users and builders.

  • Value Leakage: MEV profits flow to sequencer operators, not L1 validators or L2 users.
  • Opaque Markets: No public mempool means no transparent auction, enabling off-chain, centralized capture.
100%
Capture Rate
$100M+
Annual Revenue
02

The Solution: Permissionless Sequencing & Shared Order Flow

Protocols like Espresso, Astria, and Radius are building decentralized sequencer networks and encrypted mempools. This forces MEV to be competed for in a public market, redistributing value.

  • Redistributed Value: MEV is auctioned, with proceeds potentially returned to users via gas rebates or protocol treasuries.
  • Builder-Blocker Separation: Enables specialized MEV players (e.g., Flashbots SUAVE) to operate on L2s, improving chain efficiency.
Decentralized
Sequencing
Encrypted
Mempools
03

The New Frontier: Intents and Solver Networks

The endgame isn't better auction mechanics—it's abstracting transactions away. Intent-based architectures, pioneered by UniswapX and CowSwap, move MEV competition off-chain to solver networks.

  • User-Centric: Users submit desired outcomes (intents); solvers compete to fulfill them optimally, capturing MEV as profit.
  • Cross-Chain Native: Solvers on networks like Across and LayerZero will dominate cross-L2 MEV, making chain boundaries irrelevant for value flow.
Intent-Based
Architecture
Off-Chain
Competition
04

The Inevitable Endpoint: MEV as a Public Good

The most sustainable equilibrium redistributes extracted value. Optimism's retroactive public goods funding and Ethereum's PBS (Proposer-Builder Separation) model point the way: MEV revenue funds protocol development and user subsidies.

  • Protocol-Controlled Value: Sequencer profits are directed to a DAO treasury or gas subsidy pool.
  • Verified Markets: Transparent, on-chain auctions (like CowSwap's batch auctions) ensure fair price discovery and minimal extractable value.
DAO Treasuries
Funded By
Minimized
Extraction
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MEV's Future: Why Layer 2s Will Dominate Value Capture | ChainScore Blog