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algorithmic-stablecoins-failures-and-future
Blog

Why Stablecoin Issuers Must Become Asset Managers

The competitive moat for protocols like MakerDAO and Aave is shifting from minting mechanics to the risk-adjusted returns of their on-chain treasury. This analysis argues that yield generation, not algorithmic gimmicks, will define the next era of decentralized stablecoins.

introduction
THE REAL YIELD

The Wrong Battle

Stablecoin issuers are fighting for payments dominance while ignoring their core business: generating risk-adjusted yield on massive, idle reserves.

Stablecoin issuers are asset managers. Their primary product is a liability backed by a portfolio. The current battle for payments volume is a distraction from the fundamental challenge of managing hundreds of billions in collateral.

The yield gap is existential. A 100bps improvement on $150B in reserves generates $1.5B annually. This dwarfs revenue from transaction fees, which are competed to zero by networks like Solana and Arbitrum.

Passive treasuries are a liability. Holding low-yield US Treasuries, as Circle and Tether do, leaves billions on the table. This creates vulnerability to protocols like MakerDAO's DAI, which actively allocates to strategies via Spark Protocol.

Evidence: MakerDAO's Endgame Plan allocates 1B DAI to a decentralized asset management vault. This is a direct challenge to the passive model, proving that on-chain yield generation is the next competitive frontier.

thesis-statement
THE STRATEGIC PIVOT

Yield Is The New Peg

Stablecoin issuers must transition from passive custodians to active asset managers, as yield generation is now the primary mechanism for maintaining stability and profitability.

Yield is the new peg. The traditional model of holding 1:1 cash reserves is a broken business. Issuers like Tether and Circle generate revenue from the yield on their treasury assets, not from minting fees. This revenue funds operations, audits, and, critically, subsidizes on-chain liquidity to defend the peg during volatility.

Passive reserves are a liability. Holding low-yield assets like short-term Treasuries fails to cover the operational and existential risks of issuance. A de-pegging event or regulatory fine requires a capital buffer that only aggressive, risk-managed yield can provide. The model shifts from a balance sheet to a P&L statement.

Protocols are the new asset managers. Native yield-bearing stablecoins like MakerDAO's DAI and Ethena's USDe demonstrate this. Their stability derives not from off-chain collateral but from on-chain yield strategies involving LSDs, perp futures funding, and real-world assets. Their treasury is an active, automated portfolio.

Evidence: Ethena's $2.3B USDe sustains a 30%+ yield from staked ETH and short-hedged perp positions. This yield funds the protocol's growth and creates a flywheel where higher yield attracts more capital, which strengthens the peg's defense fund. Passive models cannot compete.

market-context
THE YIELD IMPERATIVE

The Post-Algorithmic Landscape

Stablecoin profitability now depends on active treasury management, not just algorithmic mechanisms.

Algorithmic models are obsolete. The collapse of Terra's UST proved that pure on-chain reflexivity fails under stress. Modern stability requires real-world yield generation from collateral assets, shifting the issuer's role from protocol operator to asset manager.

Idle capital is a fatal flaw. A stablecoin backed by static US Treasury bills loses to inflation and operational costs. Issuers like Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT) now actively manage portfolios across repos, money markets, and short-term corporate debt to generate the yield that funds operations and growth.

The benchmark is DeFi-native yield. Protocols like MakerDAO's DAI and Ethena's USDe set user expectations by distributing yield directly to holders. To compete, centralized issuers must match this performance, turning their treasuries into sophisticated yield engines or face disintermediation.

Evidence: MakerDAO's Endgame Plan explicitly allocates 1 billion DAI to real-world assets and structured credit vaults, targeting a 3-5% yield to subsidize DAI's Stability Fee and enhance competitiveness against yield-bearing alternatives.

THE ASSET MANAGEMENT IMPERATIVE

Treasury Composition & Yield: A Comparative Snapshot

A breakdown of how major stablecoin issuers manage their reserve assets, highlighting the yield generation strategies that separate profitable protocols from passive ones.

Treasury Metric / StrategyMakerDAO (DAI via RWA)Circle (USDC)Tether (USDT)Frax Finance (FRAX)

Primary Reserve Composition

~80% Real-World Assets (RWA)

100% Cash & Short-Term U.S. Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries, Cash, Secured Loans

~90% U.S. Treasuries, 10% Protocol-Owned Liquidity

Yield Source

RWA Lending (e.g., Monetalis Clydesdale)

Treasury Bill Interest

Treasury Bill & Repo Interest

Treasury Bill Interest & LP Fees

Estimated Annualized Yield on Reserves

~4.5% - 5.5%

~4.8% - 5.2%

~4.5% - 5.0%

~5.0% - 6.5% (incl. protocol revenue)

Protocol Revenue from Treasury

~$150M+ annually (Surplus Buffer)

~$0 (Profit to Circle entity)

~$6.2B+ annually (Tether Ltd. profit)

~$50M+ annually (sFRAX stakers & veFXS)

On-Chain Programmable Yield?

DeFi Native Strategy Integration?

Primary Counterparty Risk

RWA Deal Structuring & Custody

Banking System & U.S. Government

Money Market Funds & Banking System

U.S. Government & Smart Contract Risk

Capital Efficiency (Use of Leverage)

Moderate (via RWA credit facilities)

None (1:1 cash/equivalents)

Low (secured loans on reserves)

High (leveraged treasury strategies via frxETH)

deep-dive
THE REALITY

The Asset Manager's Playbook: From MakerDAO to GHO

Stablecoin issuers must master asset-liability management or face insolvency.

Yield-bearing collateral is mandatory. A stablecoin's backing must generate returns exceeding its operational costs. MakerDAO's shift from static USDC to real-world assets (RWAs) and Ethena's sUSDe proves this model. Passive collateral leads to negative carry.

Protocols are now banks. The primary function is asset-liability management (ALM), not just minting tokens. MakerDAO's Endgame Plan and Aave's GHO strategy focus on yield optimization and capital efficiency. They compete with TradFi treasuries.

Decentralization is a risk parameter. Over-collateralization is a capital inefficiency tax. Maker's DAI uses 150%+ ratios, while GHO targets algorithmic efficiency. The optimal model balances counterparty risk with capital velocity.

Evidence: MakerDAO's RWA portfolio generates over $100M annual revenue, funding DAI's stability. This revenue subsidizes the DAI Savings Rate, creating a sustainable flywheel.

risk-analysis
FROM PASSIVE CUSTODIANS TO ACTIVE MANAGERS

The New Risk Frontier

The era of simple reserve-backed stablecoins is over. To survive the next decade, issuers must master the complex, high-stakes game of active treasury management.

01

The Problem: Yield Collapse & Regulatory Scrutiny

T-bill yields are volatile and face political risk. The SEC's Howey Test looms over any yield distribution. Passive strategies are now a compliance and revenue liability.

  • $130B+ in USDC/USDT reserves exposed to rate fluctuations.
  • Regulatory pressure forces a shift from "security-like" returns to fee-for-service models.
  • Pure custodians face margin compression against BlackRock's BUIDL and native yield protocols.
$130B+
At Risk
0%
Yield Safety
02

The Solution: On-Chain Asset Management Infrastructure

Issuers must build internal capabilities rivaling Goldman Sachs' treasury desk. This means direct access to DeFi primitives and institutional-grade risk engines.

  • Deploy capital across Aave, Compound, Maker for diversified, transparent yield.
  • Implement real-time risk models monitoring collateral volatility, liquidity depth, and counterparty exposure.
  • Use on-chain execution via CowSwap, 1inch to minimize slippage on large rebalances.
24/7
Risk Monitoring
DeFi Native
Execution
03

The Arbitrage: Becoming a Protocol's Central Bank

The endgame is providing embedded financial services. A managed treasury isn't a cost center; it's the core product for lending, swapping, and payments.

  • Offer native yield to holders through trustless mechanisms (e.g., Ethena's sUSDe).
  • Become the primary liquidity backstop for your ecosystem's DEXs and money markets.
  • Monetize through protocol fees and seigniorage, not just reserve interest.
Product
Treasury as
New Fees
Revenue via
04

The Precedent: MakerDAO's Endgame Plan

Maker is the blueprint, transforming from a single-collateral DAI system into a decentralized asset manager with SubDAOs like Spark Protocol.

  • $5B+ RWA portfolio generating yield for DAI stability.
  • Eagle Farm manages decentralized liquidations and keepers.
  • Maker's success proves the model: stability requires active, diversified revenue streams.
$5B+
RWA Portfolio
Blueprint
Live
05

The Risk: Smart Contract & Oracle Failure

Active management multiplies attack vectors. A bug in a DeFi integration or a corrupted Chainlink price feed can insolvent the treasury overnight.

  • Requires formal verification of all integration code and circuit-breaker mechanisms.
  • Must maintain over-collateralization against black swan events (e.g., LUNA/UST collapse).
  • Insurance via Nexus Mutual or native reserve funds becomes a balance sheet line item.
>100%
Collateral Needed
Zero Trust
Oracle Assumption
06

The Competition: BlackRock & On-Chain Treasuries

The battlefield is institutional cash management. BlackRock's BUIDL fund offers a regulated alternative. Ethena's synthetic dollar captures native yield.

  • BUIDL provides SEC-registered yield, pressuring compliant issuers.
  • Ethena's $2B+ TVL shows demand for crypto-native yield products.
  • Winners will blend institutional trust with DeFi efficiency.
$2B+ TVL
Ethena
Regulated
BUIDL
future-outlook
THE CAPITAL ALLOCATION IMPERATIVE

The Endgame: Protocol Treasuries as Sovereign Funds

Stablecoin issuers must evolve from passive balance sheets into active asset managers to ensure long-term solvency and protocol dominance.

Treasury yield is existential. A stablecoin's backing assets generate the revenue that funds operations, burns tokens, and insures against black swan events. Passive US Treasury bills alone create a single-point-of-failure tied to fiat monetary policy.

Active management creates moats. Protocols like MakerDAO and Aave deploy capital into real-world assets (RWA) and on-chain lending to diversify yield sources. This transforms the treasury from a cost center into a profit engine.

The benchmark is TradFi. A protocol treasury competing with BlackRock or PIMCO requires dedicated teams, risk models, and execution venues like Gnosis Auction. Passive indexing fails.

Evidence: MakerDAO's Spark Protocol direct-integrates DAI minting with its own lending market, capturing fees and controlling monetary policy in a single, capital-efficient loop.

takeaways
THE PARADIGM SHIFT

TL;DR For Builders and Investors

The era of passive stablecoin issuance is over. To survive the next cycle, issuers must actively manage their reserves to generate yield, manage risk, and build defensible moats.

01

The Problem: The 0% Yield Trap

Holding reserves in low-yield assets like short-term Treasuries is a death sentence. It creates a fundamental misalignment where the issuer's cost of capital (user expectations) exceeds its revenue. This gap is filled by unsustainable "protocol revenue" from governance tokens, which is just disguised inflation.

  • USDC/Treasury Spread: ~4-5% annual opportunity cost.
  • Competitive Disadvantage: Yield-bearing stablecoins (e.g., Ethena's USDe) offer a native yield, forcing a race to the bottom for vanilla issuers.
4-5%
Yield Gap
$130B+
At Risk
02

The Solution: Become a DeFi Prime Broker

Issuers must leverage their massive, sticky capital base to become the central liquidity layer for DeFi. This means running an internal treasury desk that actively allocates to on-chain yield strategies.

  • Direct Integration: Act as the liquidity backbone for protocols like Aave, Compound, and Morpho.
  • Risk-Weighted Returns: Allocate across tranches, from super-senior (low yield, high safety) to mezzanine (higher yield, managed risk).
  • Fee Capture: Earn basis points on the entire reserve portfolio, not just seigniorage.
100-200 bps
Added Yield
New Revenue
Line
03

The Moats: Regulatory & Technical Hurdles

Active asset management creates defensible business moats that pure-mint/burn operations lack. It's a game of scale, compliance, and infrastructure that new entrants cannot replicate.

  • Regulatory Arbitrage: Licensed issuers (Circle, Paxos) can hold and manage a wider range of assets than any DeFi protocol.
  • Institutional On-Ramp: Become the single point of entry for TradFi capital seeking yield, competing with BlackRock's BUIDL.
  • Cross-Chain Sourcing: Deploy capital efficiently across Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche to capture best-in-class rates.
High
Barrier
Defensible
Business
04

The Risk: Managing the "Black Swan"

Active management introduces new tail risks: smart contract failure, collateral de-pegs, and liquidity crunches. The issuer's core competency shifts from compliance to risk engineering.

  • Mandate is Everything: Transparent, conservative investment policy is non-negotiable. Look to MakerDAO's RWA portfolios as a blueprint.
  • Real-Time Monitoring: Requires a SRE/DevOps team for treasury ops, not just legal.
  • The True Test: Surviving a 200 bps rate hike or a LUNA/UST-style contagion event with reserves intact.
New Core
Competency
Tail Risk
Management
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Why Stablecoin Issuance Is Now An Asset Management Game | ChainScore Blog